Trader Live Dashboard

Long-term equity advisor · Advisor mode · Pre-market refresh

📅 2026-06-29 Mon ✓ Pre-market 13:30 CEST 🎯 3 pending recs

NAV

$7,945.64

12 pos · 0% cash

Alpha YTD (od 2026-04-26)

-2.450pp

TWR -0.683% · SPY +1.767%

SPX last close

7,354

↓ -0.05% d/d · NDX -1.09%

Verified candidates

~66

cap 30 · cleanup gradual

Macro regime

Late-cycle reflation

—

Sentiment

Optimism

AAII 44.9% · NAAIM 98.59

📖 Jak czytać ten dashboard (klik aby rozwinąć) Glossary + scoring + colors

🎯 Scoring system (entry signals)

Każdy kandydat dostaje score 0-6 wg 6 niezależnych kryteriów. Im wyższy score, tym mocniejszy "kup" sygnał. Punkty można interpretować jako "ile znaków drogowych mówi 'idź'":

5-6/6 🚀 STRONG — większość kryteriów aligned, high conviction setup
4/6 ⚡ Entry zone — solid setup, worth manual review
3/6 Watch — neutralny, czeka na confirmation
≤2/6 — brak setupu, regular tracking

3 frameworki scoring (per typ aktywa):

US corporate (TSM, ACN): 6 kryteriów = cena 52W, RSI, insider buying, super-investor 13F, earnings beat, target raised
International corporate v3 (BATS.L, ISP.MI): full 6-pkt jeśli ADR mapping istnieje + dataroma ma realną super-investor coverage (≥1 owner) → score_max=6 (≥5 STRONG · ≥4 zone · ≥1 watch). Fallback 4-pkt (max 4/4) gdy no ADR mapping lub OTC pink ADR z 0 dataroma owners → Crit 3+4 strukturalnie unavailable. Crit 3 insider + Crit 4 super-investor auto-fetched z dataroma ADR (post-Lesson #6 v2 engineering fix 2026-05-03).
ETP macro v2 (4GLD, IUES.L, BIL): scoring na bazie macro signals (Fed, oil cycle, USD direction) — bo ETP nie mają earnings/insider. Country/Sector ETFs (EWJV/ENOR/EWS, SMH/CIBR.UK/XLE) używają generic relative-strength (3M vs SPY + regime proxy: VIX dla sektorów, DXY dla krajów) jako macro — sector/country-specific drivers (AI capex dla semis, oil supply dla energy, BOJ dla Japan) wymagają cycle-position check w weekly deep dive (portfolio.md:362-389), nie są w generic framework. Top-decile cycle = ⚠️ flag w dashboard.

🟢🟡🔵 Conviction tiers (advisor recommendations)

HIGH 🟢 — 2+ source triangulation + entry zone + super-investor signal + brak negatives. Najmocniejsze sygnały.
MEDIUM 🟡 — 1-2 sygnały, akcja zalecana ale poczekaj na timing/dolewkę
LOW 🔵 — speculative probe, małe wagi (1-3% NAV)

📦 Sleeves (kategorie portfela)

Portfel podzielony na sleeve = kategorię alokacji dla risk management:

Core / Quality — fundament, US large-cap mega-caps (MSFT, V, ACN)
Commodities — gold, silver, oil, copper, uranium (4GLD, IUES.L)
Tactical / Themes — semis, defense, gaming (TSM, NOC)
International — Europe / Japan / EM
Income / Defensive — utilities, REITs, MLPs
Cash — T-Bills (BIL/IB01), buffer

🌐 Macro & sentiment metryki — co znaczą

Fed Funds — stopa banku centralnego USA. ↓ = easing (good for stocks/gold), ↑ = tightening
10Y / 2Y yield — rentowności obligacji 10/2 lat. 10Y-2Y spread: >0 = krzywa normal, <0 = inwersja (recesyjny sygnał)
HY OAS — premia ryzyka high-yield bonds. <3% = euforia kredytowa, >5% = stress
NFCI — Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index. <0 = loose (risk-on), >0 = tight (stress)
VIX — wskaźnik strachu. <15 = complacency, 15-25 normal, >30 = panic
DXY — indeks dolara USA. ↓ = USD weakness (good for gold/EM/commodities)
AAII bullish % — % retail investorów bullish. >46% historycznie blisko top (kontrarian)
NAAIM exposure — ekspozycja institutional managers (0-100). >90 = max long
Core CPI YoY — inflacja core. Cel Fed 2.0%, >2.5% = sticky

📊 Factor attribution (Fama-French 5F)

Co "wygrało" w rynku akcji w ostatnich 12 miesiącach:

Mkt-RF = market return ponad risk-free rate (ile zarobił rynek)
SMB = small minus big (czy small-caps biły large-caps)
HML 💎 = high minus low book-to-market (czy value stocks biły growth)
RMW ⚠ = robust minus weak profitability (czy quality biło junk)
CMA = conservative minus aggressive investment (czy disciplined biło aggressive)

📊 Performance (TWR vs SPY)

TWR = Time-Weighted Return — neutralizuje timing wpłat (multi-period geometric chain). Standard pomiaru wydajności portfela vs benchmark.
SPY = S&P 500 ETF — nasz benchmark. Jeśli portfel +10% a SPY +15% → alpha −5pp.
Alpha = TWR − SPY. Cel: pobić SPY w 3-5 lat.

🔄 Pipeline lifecycle

Każdy kandydat na watchliście przechodzi przez stany:

needs_verification — świeży, czeka na sanity check
verified — przeszedł triangulację, gotowy do entry
promote_candidate — 2+ positive checks z rzędu, propose to Wave
drop — auto-drop (hard conditions) lub manual

Counter logic: 2 positive z rzędu → promote · 2 negative z rzędu → soft-drop proposal

Monthly 6/1: 8 pozycji (IB01 50% + GEHC/META/MELI Core + IUES.L 4% + 4GLD 5% + UBER 5% + HIG 5% + cash 16%) → 8× HOLD (META STRONG HOLD). May TWR +0.89% vs SPY +5.26% = -4.37pp (dry-powder drag). Factor 12m: RMW -11.4% quality headwind. CB+ACN DEMOTE LOW. 🟢 INTU DCA IN PROGRESS — T1/3 filled (0.4484 sh @ $356.77 = 2.0% NAV; deep counter-cycle -56% off high, fPE 13); rec STAYS ACTIVE, T2/T3 gated → cel 5%. All 19 promote-signals evaluated — none clean (oversold=super-inv distribution, near-high=pro-cyclical). **Per-position 5Y deep: 8× HOLD.** META STRONG HOLD (ROE 33%, fPE 16.8, strong-buy 1.34, +36% tgt). MELI HOLD lean-strong (+8.69% mtm MOST profitable, ROE 31%). GEHC HOLD (fPE 11.6, insider +8.53% positive). UBER HOLD (1-dniowa, +41% tgt, op-income inflection). HIG HOLD watch (value-trap-adjacent: EPS5Y 5.27<10 + P/E 8.86<15 + insider -27.2% option-exercise + **only 1 dataroma super-investor owner / 18 sells6m = THIN super-investor support**; combined ratio <100 + cheap value holds thesis — conviction stays MEDIUM). IUES.L HOLD (WTI $93 mid-cycle). 4GLD HOLD (gold $4,496 insurance). **Demotes:** CB MEDIUM→LOW (disqualifier #1+#2 + Burke/Keogh sell cluster; weekly 6/6 score = FALSE-POSITIVE), ACN MEDIUM→LOW (value-trap, May deadline passed). **Pipeline:** MO + UNH soft-drops (drop-flag / Berkshire Q1 exit), TTWO→CPRT swap (CPRT QV-confirmed), V counter+1 (Berkshire exit). **Discovery (full dataroma scan all 26 new QV):** INTU (11 owners, -56% off high, fPE 13, +42% tgt — strongest 2-source, disruption-flag-Y cap) + CME (5 owners, wide-moat exchange) added needs_verification; TEL 6 owners but all-reducing (skip); insurance cohort BLOCKED anti-concentration vs HIG. **🟢 INTU DCA IN PROGRESS — T1/3 filled** (0.4484 sh @ $356.77 = 2.0% NAV; rec STAYS ACTIVE, T2/T3 gated → cel 5%) — deep counter-cycle -56% off high $813, fPE 13, EPS5Y 15.6% (NIE value-trap), ROE 22.5%, 11 dataroma owners net-accumulating, +42% tgt; disruption-Y cap. To idiosyncratic oversold (NIE index-froth chase). **6b promote: all 19 counter.positive≥2 candidates evaluated** — none clean (NEE/WM oversold ALE super-inv reducing; MSFT/GOOG/PANW/MU near-high RSI 73-84; ET/PBR anti-concentration; RHM.DE/VIE.PA 0 owners). INTU (discovery) = de facto promote. **Queue ROTATED — 2 EXPIRED, 3 retained:** ⏰ TSM (rallied +19% above $370 trigger, near 52W high, past $410 clause) + ⏰ ISLN.UK (5wk stale, orig validity 5/3 passed, G/S drifting wrong way). Retained z firm catalyst-gated expiry: LMT (Q2 ~7/21 or expire), CB LOW (+3.4% near-trigger), ACN LOW (Q3 6/18 gate). Both expired tickers stay verified for fresh re-proposal. Rotation discipline (Dawid catch): deferred re-eval = cancellation-clause + staleness test, NIE perpetual extend. **Factor 12m (through 2026-04):** Mkt-RF +24.2 / SMB +6.5 / HML +9.3 / **RMW -11.4 (quality headwind)** / CMA +1.5 — Core/Quality tilt płynął pod prąd RMW. TWR YTD +0.893% vs SPY +5.605% = -4.71pp alpha (dry-powder cost, Wave 2 ~34% deployed). 📊 Per-position 5Y deep: 8× HOLD (META STRONG HOLD — strong-buy 1.34, +36% tgt; MELI +8.69% MOST profitable) · 📉 Factor 12m (through 2026-04): RMW -11.4% = quality headwind — Core/Quality tilt underperformed low-quality/junk trailing year · 🔻 CB + ACN DEMOTE LOW — disqualifier persistence (CB insider distribution false-positive on 6/6 score; ACN value-trap, May deadline passed) · 🔁 Pipeline: MO+UNH soft-drops (drop-flag / Berkshire Q1 exit), TTWO→CPRT swap; discovery INTU (11 owners, -56% off high) + CME (5 owners) added needs_verification · 🟢 INTU DCA IN PROGRESS — T1/3 filled (0.4484 sh @ $356.77 = 2.0% NAV); rec STAYS ACTIVE w queue dla T2/T3 (~3% to 5% target), gated na ≤$330+RSI<40 / AI-adaptation / 13F ADD Pełny raport: reports/2026-06-01_monthly.md · source: monthly-2026-06-01.

📡 Pre-market 2026-06-29 (Mon)

⏰ Today's brief 13:30 CEST · health ⚠️

US indeksy = piątkowe zamknięcie 6/26 (cash market jeszcze nie otwarty); kolumna "overnight" = futures wskazujące na otwarcie.

🟢 Pre-market movers up

—brak danych

🔴 Pre-market movers down

—brak danych

📅 Earnings dziś

—brak earnings dziś

⚡ Calendar / co obserwować: Dziś (pon 29/6): brak FOMC, brak BLS release. Cichy dzień makro przed busy tygodniem. · wt 30/6: Q2 GDP advance estimate (soft-landing read). · śr 1/7 10:00 ET: ISM Manufacturing June + JOLTS May (manufacturing pulse / labor demand) — oraz Q3-start monthly run (trader-memory cycle + stale review). · czw 2/7 8:30 ET: 🚨 NFP June (przesunięty z 7/3 holiday) + ADP + initial claims — major catalyst tygodnia, labor-crack watch (>250k claims / słaby NFP = WTI demand risk dla IUES.L). · pt 3/7: US market CLOSED (Independence Day observed). Brak post-close 7/3.

🎯 Flash recommendations: Brak catalyst trigger dziś — żadnej nowej rekomendacji. Przegląd KROK 7:

🔍 Post-event counter-cycle queue

⏳ Counter-cycle candidates 0 candidates

Brak active post-event tickerów. Queue jest empty po cleanup w weekly run.

—brak danych

Lifecycle: active → borderline/viable/chase_dead → decision_deadline (session 7/7) → expired_no_entry / promoted_to_rec. Cleanup w weekly task. Validator gate: sekcja "Counter-cycle candidates flag" w pre-market/post-close report MUSI zawierać każdy active/borderline/viable/decision_deadline ticker (`validate_yaml.py`).

🎯 Aktywne rekomendacje · tryb doradcy

🎯 Propozycje doradcy 3 aktywnych

⏳ oczekuje decyzji ⏸ czeka na sygnał ✅ wykonane ❌ odrzucone

Konkretne propozycje KUP / SPRZEDAJ / TRZYMAJ / TRIM od Claude'a. Każda ma wielkość, kategorię, poziom pewności (HIGH 🟢 / MEDIUM 🟡 / LOW 🔵), termin ważności i warunek wejścia. Najedź na warunek by zobaczyć pełen tekst.

Status	Akcja	Ticker	Wielkość	Kategoria	Pewność	Ważne do	Warunek wejścia	Uzasadnienie
⏳	KUP	INTU	$160 (2%) teraz · cel 5% · 3×DCA	Core/Quality	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-07-01 monthly	≤$330 + ≤$330 + RSI<40	DCA IN PROGRESS MEDIUM 🟡 — deep counter-cycle quality. -56.5% off 52W high $813, fPE 13...
⏸	KUP	LMT	$320 (4%)	Tactical / Themes	MEDIUM 🟡	Q2 earnings ~July (~7/21) — jeśli brak capitula...	≤$490 + ≤$490 + RSI<25 + RSI<25	P/E 24.76 / FwdP/E 15.96 / PEG 0.96 / EPS5Y 16.57% / ROE 67.6% / RSI 37.10. **Active tr...
⏸	KUP	CB	$320 (4%)	Income / Defensive	LOW 🔵	2026-07-01 monthly	≤$300 + RSI<40 · Berkshire ADD	DOWNGRADE MEDIUM 🟡 (v3): disqualifier #1+#2 triggered + 5/19 Greenberg $10M distributio...

📖 Słownik (statusy, poziomy pewności, akcje)

Statusy

⏳ oczekuje — wystawione, czeka na Twoją decyzję
⏸ czeka na sygnał — doradca rekomenduje wait do trigger touch
✅ wykonane — pozycja otwarta/zamknięta
❌ odrzucone — Twoje veto z powodem
⏰ wygasłe — minęła data ważności
🔁 zastąpione — nowsza wersja istnieje

Poziom pewności

HIGH 🟢 2+ źródła + entry zone + super-investor + brak negative
MEDIUM 🟡 1-2 sygnały, akcja zalecana ale poczekaj na timing
LOW 🔵 spekulacyjne, małe wagi 1-3% NAV

Akcje

KUP — otwórz pozycję / dokup
SPRZEDAJ — zamknij pozycję
TRIM — częściowa sprzedaż
TRZYMAJ — bez zmian

🎯 Ticker selection hierarchy — dlaczego TEN ticker, nie inny

🎯 Ranked picks per thesis subsegment-driven

Gdy multiple tickerów ma same score (np. 9 energy 5/6 STRONG), selection hierarchy decyduje którego wybrać. Level 1: subsegment diversification (broad / services / supermajor / E&P / MLP / EM) — pickuj jednego z każdego. Level 2: tiebreaker (UCITS, TER, super-investors, insider). Level 3: risk profile match per Wave. Level 4: max 2-3 per thesis. Pełna canonical reference: portfolio.md.

🛢 Energy thesis (9 STRONG, ranked)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	⚡ IUES.L	Broad ETF UCITS	Wave 1 ✅	picked	Diversified anchor · TER 0.15% · UCITS Acc · USD-denom symetria z IB01
2	OIHV.L	Oil services UCITS	Wave 2	candidate	Different subsegment (services capex leverage) · UCITS · TER 0.35%
3	CVX	Supermajor (quality)	Wave 3	candidate	Buffett's energy stake = quality stamp · defensive blue-chip · #2 XLE holding
4	EOG	E&P shale	Wave 3-4	candidate	Yacktman + Nygren super-investors · low-cost producer · YTD +27%
5	AM	Midstream MLP	Wave 4	candidate	Dividend ~6-7% income tilt · Kahn Brothers + Greenberg holds
6	PBR	EM Energy value	Wave 4+	candidate	P/E 6.9 deep value · governance + political risk balanced przez tier
—	HAL	Oil services single	skip	overlap	HAL = top OIHV.L holding (~25%) · OIHV.L już covers
—	XOM	Supermajor	skip	overlap	Overlap z CVX · mniejszy super-investor signal niż CVX
—	ET	Midstream MLP	skip	overlap	Overlap z AM · same subsegment, AM cleaner thesis (natgas focus)

🥇 Precious metals thesis (5 candidates, ranked)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	🥇 4GLD.DE	Physical gold ETC	Wave 1 ✅	picked	Najtańszy gold w EU (TER ~0%) · physical-backed · EUR-denom currency hedge
2	ISLN.UK	Physical silver ETC	Wave 2 conditional	candidate	Different metal · gold/silver pair · UCITS TER 0.20%
3	NEM	Gold miner single	Wave 3+	candidate	Leverage do gold spot 2-3x · First Eagle blessing · PEG 0.47
—	B	Gold/Cu hybrid	skip	overlap	Gold-dominant + copper · NEM cleaner pure-gold thesis
—	WPM	Silver streaming corp	skip	overlap	Overlap z ISLN — corporate risk vs pure ETC, ISLN cleaner

⚙ Industrial metals thesis (3 candidates)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	COPX	Diversified miners ETF	Wave 3	candidate	Pure copper exposure · diversified miners · ETP 4/6
2	VALE	Iron + EV materials	Wave 3-4	candidate	EM exposure · 2 insider buys · Hybrid 2/4 + ETP 5/6 STRONG · cheap FwdP/E 8
—	RIO	Diversified mining	skip	overlap	Overlap z COPX (diversified) i VALE (iron+) — same subsegment combos

💡 Key insight: z 17 STRONG/entry zone tickerów we 3 commodity sleeves → realistycznie wystarczy 3-4 picks per thesis aby pokryć 80% exposure. Reszta = redundancy nie diversification. Anti-concentration cap (max 2-3 per thesis) wymusza tę selektywność.

📊 Sleeve allocation vs target — glide path

📊 Sleeve allocation vs target Late-cycle reflation · stage: TRIM regime

Wagi celowe (% NAV) per sleeve zależą od macro regime. Target ranges (low-high) z `portfolio.md` → "Sleeve targets" (YAML). Anti-concentration: max ±5pp od target → flag rebalance. Glide path: Wave 1 (now) → Wave 4 → steady state ($5-10k+ NAV).
Current weights computed live z `portfolio.md` "Pozycje otwarte" YAML blocks + free cash. Cash override (jeśli aktywny) flagowany w status column.

Sleeve	Current % NAV	Target range	Δ vs target	Status
Cash / Yield	48.7%	13.0-32.5% (base 10-25)	+16.2pp over	⚠ override target 30% (regime 13.0-32.5%) — valid until weekly-2026-07-05
Core / Quality	27.7%	22.5-31.5% (base 25-35)	on target	OK
🥇 Precious metals	8.7%	5-10%	on target	OK
🛢 Energy	3.8%	5.0-7.5% (base 10-15)	−1.2pp under	underweight
⚙ Industrial metals	0.0%	2.5-5.0% (base 5-10)	−2pp empty	empty
⚛ Uranium	0.0%	0.0-3.5% (base 0-5)	on target	OK
Tactical / Themes	5.4%	7.0-14.0% (base 10-20)	−1.6pp under	underweight
International	0.0%	0-5%	on target	OK
Income / Defensive	5.6%	6.5-13.0% (base 5-10)	−0.9pp under	underweight

Glide path Waves (z `portfolio.md` "Glide path" YAML): Wave 1 (now) → Wave 2 (po weekly trigger) → Wave 3 (po monthly trigger) → Wave 4 → steady state.

💡 Anti-concentration rule: max 2-3 pozycje per macro thesis. Sleeve cap +5pp tolerated; over → flag rebalance w next weekly/monthly.

Catalysts & trigger watch

🎯 Conditional triggers 8 total · ✅ 2 · 📍 4

Triggery z catalysts.md "Conditional / Thesis triggers" — każdy z live current value + status: ✅ TRIGGERED (wystaw rec) · 📍 CLOSE (within 10% threshold) · ⏸ FAR (>20% off). Aktualizowane przy każdym dashboard rebuild.

Trigger / Akcja jeśli aktywuje	Current	Status	Pozycja
WTI pullback do $78-82 → Upgrade IUES.L deferred → BUY HIGH 🟢 + add OIHV.L Wave 2	WTI $69.94	📍 close (within 10%)	deferred
WTI hold >$90 + VIX rising 4+ tyg → Upgrade IUES.L deferred → BUY HIGH 🟢 (regime-shift entry)	WTI $70 ✗ · VIX 18.3 (4-tyg rising +14.0%, thr ≥+5%) ✓	📍 partial (VIX only)	deferred
Gold pullback do $3,470-3,800 + RSI <40 → Upgrade 4GLD.DE MEDIUM_probe → BUY MEDIUM full + DCA do target $520 (6.5% × NAV $8k; sizing recal post-inj#5 — NIE stale $260 ref pre-inj)	Gold $4,047 · 4GLD RSI 36.6	📍 close RSI ✓<40	deferred (next escalation)
INTU T3 — AI-adaptation evidence (Q4 FY26 ~Aug) OR 13F ADD 8/14 → Add INTU DCA T3 (~$120 / +1.5% → 5% target)	$268 ✓≤330 · RSI 36.9 ✓<40	✅ TRIGGERED (DCA T2 — ≤$330 + RSI<40)	held (INTU T1+T2 filled)
Silver <$60 lub G/S ratio >70 → Promote ISLN.UK watching → BUY	Promote ISLN.UK watching → BUY	✅ TRIGGERED (historical fire — see action column)	🔥 FIRED 2026-06-24 (silver $59.53 <$60) → PROMOTED → ⏳ Active BUY rec
AAII bullish <40% AND NAAIM exposure <80 → Cash buffer override expires → deploy speed-up (regime target 10-25%)	AAII 44.9% · NAAIM 98.6	⏸ far (both fail)	global
SPY -5-10% pullback → ACN value entry zone aktywuje się	-3.88% z 60d high	📍 close	deferred
VIX spike >25 sustained → Pause new entries · trim defensive sleeve flag	18.30	⏸ far	global

📅 Top events (next 7d) 4 ticker · 4 macro

Top 5 nadchodzących events z catalysts.md "Ten tydzień" — filtered dla portfolio + deferred + watching pipeline. Pełna lista: catalysts.md.

Data	Ticker / Event	Pozycja
7/2 Thu 8:30 ET	NFP June (pulled fwd z 7/3 holiday) + ADP + Initial claims — 🚨 Major catalyst tygodnia — labor crack watch	—
7/1 Wed 10:00 ET	ISM Manufacturing June + JOLTS May — 🚨 Manufacturing pulse + labor demand	—
7/3 Fri	US market CLOSED (Independence Day observed) — Holiday	—
weekly Thu 8:30 ET	Initial jobless claims — Labor pulse	—

Last refresh: 2026-06-28 (weekly run). Auto-updated each weekly + monthly · Auto-refresh przy weekly (Sun 20:00 CEST) + monthly run.

Stan portfela & performance

💼 Portfolio NAV $7,945.64

Aktualny stan portfela. NAV (Net Asset Value) = wartość portfela = cash + pozycje po current price. Wszystkie wagi (% NAV) liczone proporcjonalnie do tego.

NAV$7,945.64

Otwarte pozycje12

Allocated$7,944.92 · 100%

Free cash$0.72 · 0%

Cash flow ledger+$4,000 contributed (2 deposits)

📈 Performance (TWR) cumulative + live SPY

Wydajność portfela vs benchmark SPY (S&P 500). Cumulative rows (od 2026-04-26) parsed z performance.md ## YTD section (TWR sub-period method neutralizes cash flows). SPY 1d/WTD/1m/1Y rows pulled live z yfinance per build. Alpha YTD = TWR YTD − SPY YTD (cumulative; main metric). Alpha 1d = MTM mark-to-market vs SPY 1d (daily snapshot, mixed timeframe — limited semantic).

TWR YTD (od 2026-04-26)-0.683%

SPY YTD (od 2026-04-26)+1.767%

🎯 Alpha YTD (cumulative)-2.450pp

— Daily snapshot (mixed timeframe, limited) —

MTM vs cost basis-0.69%

SPY 1d-0.72%

Alpha (1d snapshot)+0.03pp

— SPY benchmark context —

SPY close (2026-06-26)$728.99

SPY WTD (5d)-2.38%

SPY 1m-2.61%

SPY 1Y+19.87%

Pozycje · Win rate12 pos · live (1d) · n/d (0 trades)

Cumulative TWR YTD + Alpha YTD parsed z performance.md (refreshed by post-close + weekly). SPY rows live z yfinance per build. Pełen daily NAV history → chain geometric TWR planowany Wave 2.

🧠 Sentiment regime macro.md

Jak inwestorzy postrzegają rynek. Często kontrarian — max bullish historycznie blisko top, max bearish blisko bottom. Klasyfikacja: panic → fear → neutral → optimism → euphoria. Wartości z `macro.md` "Current snapshot" YAML.

OPTIMISM

AAII bullish44.9%

NAAIM exposure98.59

FINRA margin debt$1.221T -4.5%

Konsument UMich49.8

Source: `macro.md` "Current snapshot" sentiment_indicators block (refreshed weekly + monthly). Caveat: AAII top decile historycznie często poprzedza krótkoterminowy pullback.

📊 Otwarte pozycje 12 pos · $0.72 free cash

Aktualne pozycje w portfelu (z portfolio.md "Pozycje otwarte"). Cost basis = ilość × cena wejścia. Live = ostatni close 15m bar z yfinance (best-effort, "—" jeśli offline). P/L = (live − entry) / entry. Free cash to dry powder dla confirming-signal-triggered DCA — patrz portfolio.md "Cash policy override" dla rationale current sizing'u.

Ticker	Kierunek	Ilość	Cena wej.	Live	P/L	Cost basis	Data wej.	Teza
IB01.L	LONG	32.02	$120.25	$120.88	+0.53% ($+20.27)	$3,850.19	2026-04-27	Pseudo-cash w yield-bearing T-Bills 0-1Y UCITS — XTB nie płaci odsetek na free cash USD. Hedge na pullback (sell IB01 → buy quality tanie...
GEHC	LONG	6.34	$63.01	$65.67	+4.22% ($+16.87)	$399.68	2026-05-07	GE HealthCare Technologies — dominantny franchise medical imaging (MRI/CT/ultrasound/X-ray) post-spinout z GE 2023. Counter-cycle quality...
META	LONG	0.66	$601.62	$549.35	-8.69% ($-34.73)	$399.72	2026-05-11	Mega-cap quality compounder z thesis-confirming Q1 +56.79% EPS BEAT ($10.44 vs $6.66 est) ALE post-Q1 capitulation -10% z forward guidanc...
MELI	LONG	0.26	$1560.00	$1674.02	+7.31% ($+29.37)	$401.86	2026-05-18	Mercado Libre — dominantny franchise LATAM e-commerce + fintech (Mercado Pago/Envios) operations Argentina/Brazil/Mexico. Counter-cycle e...
⚡ IUES.L	LONG	26.92	$11.89	$11.31	-4.88% ($-15.61)	$320.08	2026-05-27	iShares S&P 500 Energy Sector UCITS ETF (Acc, LSE listing, USD-denominated, TER 0.15%) — same exposure jak US XLE (XOM, CVX, EOG, COP top...
🥇 4GLD.DE	LONG	2.83	€121.42	€113.73	-6.33% (€-21.76)	$400.98	2026-05-28	Xetra-Gold ETC (4GLD.DE) — physical-backed gold w niemieckim depo, TER ~0% (najtaniej w EU). Tier I instrument w XTB EUR base currenc...
UBER	LONG	5.63	$72.02	$76.07	+5.62% ($+22.82)	$405.75	2026-06-01	Uber Technologies — counter-cycle deep-oversold laggard. -31% off 52W high $102 na przesadzonym/powolnym strachu przed robotaxi/AV, podcz...
HIG	LONG	3.33	$126.48	$133.88	+5.85% ($+24.66)	$421.47	2026-06-01	The Hartford Financial — counter-cycle defensive value insurer. RSI sub-30 oversold + P/E 8.95 cheap + ROE 20.3% po Q1 miss derating; com...
INTU	LONG	0.82	$342.34	$266.87	-22.05% ($-61.83)	$280.45	2026-06-01	Intuit — wide-moat fintech software (TurboTax/QuickBooks/Credit Karma/Mailchimp), discovery scan najsilniejszy 2-source candidate (QV + 1...
GOOG	LONG	1.15	$348.62	$334.91	-3.93% ($-15.73)	$400.04	2026-06-02	Alphabet — wide-moat search/cloud/YouTube + Gemini AI. PROMOTED z watch list (RSI cooldown <50 OR-trigger MET, Dawid catch Lesson #14...
MSFT	LONG	1.04	$384.51	$371.36	-3.42% ($-13.67)	$399.85	2026-06-15	Microsoft — mega-cap wide-moat quality compounder (Azure cloud, Copilot/OpenAI, M365, gaming). Counter-cycle entry: genuine -30% drawdown...
🥈 ISLN.UK	LONG	5.77	$55.43	$55.07	-0.65% ($-2.08)	$319.94	2026-06-24	iShares Physical Silver ETC, ISIN IE00B4NCWG09, LSE, USD-denom, TER 0.20%, physical-backed. Counter-cycle catch-up probe — promote_tr...

Allocated: $7,944.92 (100% NAV) · Free cash: $0.72 (0% NAV) · Total NAV: $7,945.64.

Macro & factor regime

🌐 Macro regime FRED 4Y

Co się dzieje w gospodarce — kluczowe wskaźniki. Late-cycle reflation = późny cykl + powrót inflacji + Fed easing. Sprzyja: commodities, energy, EM. Niebezpieczne: stagflation pivot. Threshold: 10Y-2Y >0 = krzywa normal · HY OAS <3% = euforia kredytowa · VIX <20 = complacency · DXY <100 = USD weak.

ReżimLate-cycle reflation

Cycle stage🟡 Trim (reduce cyclical, increase defensive)

Fed Funds3.63% easing cycle

Core CPI YoY+2.82% YoY

Core PCE YoY+3.4% YoY Fed's preferred

10Y / 2Y / 3M4.4 / 4.09 / 3.69 stable

10Y-2Y spread+31 bp dis-inverted

VIX18.31 calm

HY OAS2.78% tight

NFCI-0.516 loose

DXY · Gold · WTI101.32 · $4051.8 · $69.83 reflation

Silver · Copper · NatGas$58.36 · $6.19 · $3.27

Unemployment · claims4.3% · 226k

📊 Factor attribution FF 5F · 12m → 2026-04-30

Co "wygrało" w rynku akcji w ostatnich 12 mies (Fama-French 5-Factor model). HML 💎 = czy value > growth. RMW = czy quality > junk. Jeśli nasz portfel jest quality+value bias, dodatnie HML/RMW = tailwind. Wartości z `macro.md` "Current snapshot" YAML — refreshed monthly.

Mkt-RF

+24.21%

SMB

+6.51%

HML 💎

+9.3%

RMW ⚠

-11.42%

CMA

+1.48%

Value > growth (HML +9.3%) wspiera quality+value bias. RMW -11.42% = junk > quality, headwind dla pure quality compounders.

Entry signals (top candidates)

🚀 Entry signal scoring · 2026-06-28 v2 multi-framework · US/INTL/ETP

Każdy kandydat z watchlisty dostaje score 0-6 (im wyżej, tym mocniejszy "kup" sygnał). Kolumny: Licznik = positive/negative counter — 2 positive z rzędu → promote (BUY proposal w monthly), 2 negative → soft-drop · RSI <40 = oversold · −52W = jak daleko od 52W high · Insider = count buys 30d lub net Trans % · Beat = Q-earnings beat consensus. Score badges: 5-6/6 STRONG 4/6 Entry zone 3/6 Watch. Hybrid scoring (singles): "2/4 +ETP 5/6" = US corporate scoring + macro framework alignment combined.

Ticker	Klasa	Score	Licznik	RSI	−52W	Insider	Beat	Główne sygnały	Kontekst
🚀 STRONG signal (≥5/6) — najmocniejsze setupy
CME	Core/Quality	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	22	-32.9%	6 buys	✓	RSI oversold · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	verify next weekly (entry score 6-crit) — counter-cycle...
ET	Energy	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	49	-7.4%	4 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper · dowolny
INTU	Core/Quality	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	37	-67.1%	2 buys	✓	RSI oversold · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	see recommendations.md → BUY-INTU-2026-06-01 (3 conditi...
MU	Discovery	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	59	-9.8%	2 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper · high vol — wait dla earnings confirmation
PBR	Energy	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	27	-26.8%	1 buys	✓	RSI oversold · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	value tilt
TSM	Tactical	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	52	-9.3%	11 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Coleman, Mandel · BUY rec ⏰ EXPIRED 20...
WM	Core/Quality	5/6 🚀	2/0 ↑	59	-9.1%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny
🚀 STRONG signal (US framework max 3/4 weekly)
ISP.MI	Income/Defensive	3/4 🌍🚀	2/0 ↑	54	-4.5%	0 buys	✓	off-high · beat · target↑	—
RHM.DE	Tactical	3/4 🌍🚀	2/0 ↑	24	-52.9%	—	✓	RSI oversold · beat · target↑	—
⚡ Entry zone — solid setup, manual review zalecany
ACN	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	27	-58.1%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	confirming signal: Q-beat-and-raise OR ≥1 insider Form ...
BABA	EM	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	16	-50.8%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Ketterer
BLK	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	1/0	33	-20.9%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: ValueAct, Nygren
BRK.B	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	62	-3.5%	4 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Li Lu
CB	Income/Defensive	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	65	-1.2%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Buffett, Davis, Olstein · WAIT — counter-cycle...
CVX	Energy	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	33	-20.3%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Buffett · dowolny
GEHC	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	57	-26.7%	8 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Counter-cycle entry — execute jeśli (a) GEHC pullback d...
GOOG	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	33	-17.3%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Li Lu, Tepper · dowolny
HAL	Energy	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	31	-21.5%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Pzena · dowolny — services subsegment
HIG	Income/Defensive	4/6 ⚡	1/0	57	-7.3%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Pzena · jeśli CB nie kupisz
MELI	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	53	-36.7%	3 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	po sanity Q-earnings
META	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	1/0	37	-30.9%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: ValueAct, Dorsey · RESOLVED — promoted to form...
MSFT	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	40	-32.9%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	see recommendations.md → BUY-MSFT-2026-06-14 (counter-c...
NOC	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	30	-35.4%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Torray · WATCH-ONLY do triple confir...
PANW	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	70	-0.7%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Mairs, Nygren
RIO	Industrial metals	4/6 ⚡	1/0	35	-16.7%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Dodge & Cox · dowolny
SAP	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	40	-50.5%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny po Q1 mixed → wait for Q2 reconfirm
SMH	Tactical	4/6 ⚙️⚡	0/0	51	-9.0%	—	✗	off-high	semi cycle confirm (lub jako anchor tech)
TTWO	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	62	-9.9%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Coleman · GTA6 release date confirmation lub T...
UBER	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	59	-25.3%	2 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Q1 earnings May 6 beat + AV/robotaxi adaptation evidenc...
V	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	61	-6.5%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Akre, Smith, ValueAct · dowolny
VALE	Industrial metals	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	41	-16.0%	3 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny — industrial cycle
VZ	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	49	-9.9%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat · target↑	—
XOM	Energy	4/6 ⚡	2/0 ↑	34	-22.6%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny — reflation play
👀 Watch (3/6) — neutralny, czeka na confirmation
B	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	40	-31.8%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: First Eagle · hybrid setup (gold + industrial)
CCJ	Uranium	3/6	0/0	46	-22.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	uranium thesis
CIBR.UK	Tactical	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	54	-10.2%	—	✗	—	Wave 3+ — po wave 2 fill; jeśli wchodzimy → wycofać PAN...
CNI	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	62	-1.6%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Watsa
CPRT	Tactical	3/6	0/0	45	-39.0%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	RSI <40 oversold + insider Form 4 buy = capitulation...
DECK	Tactical	3/6	0/0	46	-17.3%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	WAIT — disqualifier #2 ⚠️ TRIGGERED (P/E 14.26 + EPS5Y ...
EOG	Energy	3/6	0/0	44	-12.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Nygren · dowolny
EWS	Income/Defensive	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	62	-1.2%	—	✗	off-high	dowolny
INCY	Discovery	3/6	0/0	69	-1.6%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Dodge & Cox · dowolny
LMT	Tactical	3/6	0/0	44	-26.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Gayner-Markel, Dodge & Cox · see...
NEE	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	55	-10.3%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny — defensive anchor
NEM	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	40	-28.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: First Eagle · gold cycle setup (hybrid 2/4 + E...
PHM	Income/Defensive	3/6	0/0	73	-4.8%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	przy rate cut cycle
RTX	Tactical	3/6	0/0	57	-12.4%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Olstein
SFM	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	48	-52.0%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	—
SW	Income/Defensive	3/6	0/0	66	-10.8%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Ketterer
WPM	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	40	-31.6%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	silver thesis
SSE.L	Income/Defensive	1/4 🌍	0/2 ↓	54	-12.5%	0 buys	✗	target↑	—
VIE.PA	Income/Defensive	1/4 🌍	0/0	63	-1.0%	0 buys	✗	off-high	—
⏸ Macro thesis active, technical not yet ripe (2/6 — czekaj)
AM	Energy	2/6	0/2 ↓	71	-2.7%	0 buys	✗	off-high · super-inv	Holders: Greenberg, Kahn · dowolny
AWK	Income/Defensive	2/6	0/2 ↓	65	-10.3%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat	Holders: Mairs, First Eagle
BATS.L	Income/Defensive	2/6 🌍	0/1	61	-10.8%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat	—
COPX	Industrial metals	2/6 ⚙️	0/0	39	-23.8%	—	✗	RSI oversold	copper cycle setup
ENOR	Energy	2/6 ⚙️	0/0	22	-18.4%	—	✗	RSI oversold	dowolny
EWJV	International	2/6 ⚙️	0/0	48	-7.0%	—	✗	off-high	dowolny
IUES.L	Energy	2/6 ⚙️	0/0	40	-15.7%	—	✗	RSI oversold	see recommendations.md → BUY-IUES.L-2026-04-26 (3 condi...
OIHV.L	Energy	2/6 ⚙️	0/0	34	-17.9%	—	✗	RSI oversold	po energy thesis confirmation
PGR	Income/Defensive	2/6	0/1	72	-16.3%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat	WAIT — value-trap test FAILS (EPS5Y -4.04% AND P/E 10.3...
⚠ Proposed soft-drop (counter -1 negative)
UNH	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	72	-0.0%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	dowolny — w trakcie korekty · ▼ proposed drop
MO	Core/Quality	2/6	0/2 ↓	61	-1.0%	0 buys	✗	off-high · super-inv	Holders: Russo, Yacktman, Dodge & Cox · ▼ proposed drop

Czytanie tabeli: sortowanie sekcjami od najsilniejszego (STRONG ≥5/6) do soft-drop. Każdy ticker raz, w swojej primary klasyfikacji. Hybrid score (np. CCJ "2/4 + ETP 3/6") = ticker scored przez oba frameworki — finviz US corporate AND macro ETP. Pokazujemy oba bo single stocks z commodity exposure mają both lenses.

Rate-sensitive equities (NEE/AWK/WTRG/CB/HIG) = single stocks z makro tailwind od Fed/yield curve. Hybrid scoring: finviz (US corporate signals — RSI, beat, insider) + ETP rate_sensitive (macro alignment). Krytyczna nota dla NEE: NIE jest pure regulated utility — growth utility z secondary thesis (AI datacenter power demand, Florida demographic expansion). Macro tailwind jest reinforcement, ale corporate growth story jest separate. Tier 3 ETP scoring 6 criteria: Crit 1 cena 52W · Crit 2 RSI · Crit 3 macro alignment (Fed Funds <4% ✓, 10Y yield falling, curve steepening ✓; ≥2 z 3 = 1pt) · Crit 4 momentum (10Y direction) · Crit 5 vol fit (VIX >20 = good) · Crit 6 USD direction.

Pełna watchlist per sleeve · ~66 verified

📋 Watchlist 66 tickets · cap 30 · sortowane per priorytet

Watchlist = lista kandydatów do obserwacji, NIE obowiązek kupna. Pogrupowane per sleeve (kategoria alokacji portfela). Liczby per sleeve = ile kandydatów w tej kategorii. Soft cap: max 30 verified (forces selectivity); aktualnie ~66 = nadwyżka, gradual cleanup w monthly tasks.

Kolejność tickerów per sleeve: 🚀 strong signal (≥3/4) → ★ NEW monthly → ⚡ entry zone (2/4) → standard verified → international → ▼ proposed soft-drop. Sleeves też posortowane: Core → Commodities → Tactical → Discovery → Income → International → EM → Cash.

Core / Quality 🚀3⚡11▼2 18

1CME 5/6 🚀2INTU 5/6 🚀3WM 5/6 🚀4ACN 4/6 ⚡5BLK 4/6 ⚡6BRK.B 4/6 ⚡7GEHC 4/6 ⚡8GOOG 4/6 ⚡9MELI 4/6 ⚡10META 4/6 ⚡11MSFT 4/6 ⚡12SAP 4/6 ⚡13V 4/6 ⚡14VZ 4/6 ⚡15CNI 3/616SFM 3/6UNHMO

🚀 3 strong: CME, INTU, WM · ⚡ 11 entry zone: ACN, BLK, BRK.B, GEHC, GOOG, MELI (+5) · ▼ proposed soft-drops: UNH, MO

🥇 Precious metals (insurance) 5

1B 3/62NEM 3/63WPM 3/64ISLN.UK 1/6 ⚙️54GLD.DE 0/6 ⚙️

5 verified — regular tracking.

🛢 Energy (cycle bet) 🚀1⚡3 8

1PBR 5/6 🚀2CVX 4/6 ⚡3HAL 4/6 ⚡4XOM 4/6 ⚡5EOG 3/66ENOR 2/6 ⚙️7IUES.L 2/6 ⚙️8OIHV.L 2/6 ⚙️

🚀 1 strong: PBR · ⚡ 3 entry zone: CVX, HAL, XOM

⚙ Industrial metals (cycle bet) ⚡2 3

1RIO 4/6 ⚡2VALE 4/6 ⚡3COPX 2/6 ⚙️

⚡ 2 entry zone: RIO, VALE

⚛ Uranium (thematic) 1

1CCJ 3/6

1 verified — regular tracking.

Tactical / Themes 🚀2⚡4▼1 12

1TSM 5/6 🚀2RHM.DE 3/4 🌍🚀3NOC 4/6 ⚡4PANW 4/6 ⚡5SMH 4/6 ⚙️⚡6UBER 4/6 ⚡7CIBR.UK 3/6 ⚙️8CPRT 3/69DECK 3/610LMT 3/611RTX 3/6TTWO

🚀 2 strong: TSM, RHM.DE · ⚡ 4 entry zone: NOC, PANW, SMH, UBER · ▼ proposed soft-drops: TTWO

Discovery — Insurance & Biotech 🚀1 2

1MU 5/6 🚀2INCY 3/6

🚀 1 strong: MU

Income / Defensive 🚀2⚡3 14

1ET 5/6 🚀2ISP.MI 3/4 🌍🚀3CB 4/6 ⚡4HIG 4/6 ⚡5BATS.L 2/6 🌍6EWS 3/6 ⚙️7NEE 3/68PHM 3/69SW 3/610AM 2/611AWK 2/612PGR 2/613SSE.L 1/4 🌍14VIE.PA 1/4 🌍

🚀 2 strong: ET, ISP.MI · ⚡ 3 entry zone: CB, HIG, BATS.L

International 1

1EWJV 2/6 ⚙️

1 verified — regular tracking.

EM / Special ⚡1 1

1BABA 4/6 ⚡

⚡ 1 entry zone: BABA

Cash / Defensive ✅1 1

✅ IB01.L (50% NAV)

✅ 1 held: IB01.L (50% NAV)

verified standard strong signal ≥5/6 entry zone 4/6 NEW monthly promote_candidate proposed soft-drop italic = international UCITS (kept dla XTB EU access tagging)

Scoring framework v2 (od 2026-04-26): US corporate (finviz 6-crit) → INTL corporate (yfinance + ADR mapping, np. BATS.L→BTI) → ETP (macro-based per type: gold/silver/oil/copper/uranium/t-bills/country/sector/USD/PL-bonds). Italic nie znaczy już "poza scope" — wszystkie tickery dostają teraz scoring.

Pipeline lifecycle & discovery

🔄 Watchlist counter post-monthly

Pipeline lifecycle workflow. Każdy kandydat ma counter positive/negative: 2 positive z rzędu → promote (Wave candidate); 2 negative → propose drop. Scoring: positive = insider buy / earnings beat / super-investor add; negative = insider sell cluster / margin compression / super-investor exit.

Active verified66

positive_check (BLK)1 / 0 score 4/6

positive_check (HIG)1 / 0 score 4/6

positive_check (META)1 / 0 score 4/6

positive_check (RIO)1 / 0 score 4/6

Promotions ↑28 MSFT, GOOG, V

Auto-drops 🔴0 no hard triggers

Soft-drops proposed3 −1 negative

Stale flags0 skipped — nie 1.Q-day

Next stale review2026-07-01 Q3

⚠️ Proposed soft-drops size-cap

Kandydaci z YAML soft_drop_proposed: true. Powody: 0 super-investor support, overlap z lepszym tickerem, anti-concentration (sleeve full), thesis breach. Confirmation w kolejnym monthly (2026-06).

Ticker	Sleeve	Powód / score
MO	Core/Quality	Drop-flag confirmed (monthly 6a 2026-06-01): counter.negative 2/2, score 2/6 (weakest Core), tobacco secular volume decline, analyst target +1% upside (no catalyst), 0 insider buys. Income thesis covered better by HIG/quality dividend names. → propose rejected next monthly jeśli weekly brak positive. · 2/6
UNH	Core/Quality	Monthly 6/1: Berkshire FULL EXIT UNH Q1 2026 13F (verified 5/17) = super-investor exit (soft-drop trigger #3). Combined z empty super_investors list + only +5% target + regulatory/DOJ overhang 2025 + score 3/6 = demote. counter.negative 2/2. → propose rejected next monthly jeśli brak positive weekly (anti-thrashing 1-cycle confirm). · 3/6
TTWO	Tactical	Swap candidate (monthly 6c 2026-06-01): CPRT (better alternative, same Tactical/Themes sleeve). CPRT confirmed w QV screen 6/1 (Source A) + 7 dataroma owners + 4 buys + no-debt fortress BS + ROIC 16% vs TTWO 3/6 score, anti-concentration (Tactical filling). Swap proposed: TRIM/skip TTWO → BUY CPRT (paper, no position). Hard exec po stronie Dawida. · 4/6

Counter −1 each. Weekly w maju może anulować (jeśli score lift do ≥4/6). Confirm w 2026-06 monthly. Cel: 60 → 30 verified w ~6-8 cycles.

🔍 Discovery scan 3 sources

Triangulacja 3 niezależnych źródeł aby znaleźć NOWE kandydaty: (A) finviz S&P 500 quality+value screen · (B) dataroma — co kupują super-investors (Buffett/Yacktman) w 13F filings · (C) insider buys (Form 4) ostatnie 30d. Spółka w 2+ z 3 sources = nowy verified candidate.

A: finviz QV screen36 candidates (insurance-heavy: 9 new P&C insurers)

B: dataroma super-investor (fetch_dataroma_adr_data Python LIVE)13 tickers scanned · owner counts + recent activity per ticker (positions + QV candidates)

C: insider buys 30d200 transactions, micro-cap dominated (zero S&P 500 QV overlap)

2+ source overlapINTU (NEW (A QV + B 11 dataroma owners = STRONGEST 2-source; -56% off high, fPE 13, EPS5Y 15.6%, +42% tgt; Core/Quality; disruption flag Y = MEDIUM cap)), CME (NEW (A QV + B 5 dataroma owners = 2-source; wide-moat exchange, non-insurance diversifier Core/Quality))

Single-source watchLULU, GD, TRV, TROW, RMD

Source: reports/2026-06-01_monthly.md · refresh 2026-06-01. Top dataroma buys: META (30) · UBER (11) · INTU (11) · MELI (8) · GEHC (7) · CPRT (6) · CME (5).

Data sources & ostatnie odświeżenia

🔌 Data sources status ✅ 13 OK · ⚠️ 0 warn · ❌ 0 fail

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Layer 3 — Web fallbacks7/7 ✓

FRED 4Y macro pack24 series ✓

FF 5F factor returns12m → 02-2026 ✓

dataroma activity80 mgrs ✓

Last health check2026-06-29 11:39:27 UTC

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📌 Action items weekly-2026-06-28

✅ Weekly 6/21 framework calibration — DONE (4-pillar verdict) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: (1) Counter-cycle DISCIPLINE → 0 new BUY — composite sentiment trigger #4 BREAKS again on NAAIM U-turn (79.27→92.83 = institutions re-aggressive near-max-long; only retail AAII 36.6 cautious). STRONG scorers ET 6/6 / PBR 5/6 cyclical trim-capped (WTI broke <$80), CME 5/6 needs_verification (monthly 7/1), MSFT/INTU held. (2) Cycle drift: WTI $76.54 broke BELOW IUES.L path-a $78-82 (supply-bearish, EXIT-watch NIE add). (3) Sentiment crowded ~3/5 rebuilding (NAAIM 92.83 + VIX 16.4 complacent + SPX near ATH; offset retail caution). (4) Alpha: NAV ~$7,915 cum -1.1%, SPY WTD +1.48% = neg alpha (cash hedge drag on up-tape + INTU/gold weak). Deferred flip check: 0 flips (MSFT/GOOG/INTU/LMT/CB all WAIT; ACN rejected 6/18).

✅ Weekly 6/21 cash override re-decision — DONE (composite BREAKS → EXTEND) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: AAII 36.6 (<40 8th wk recovering) BUT NAAIM 92.83 (+13.56 WoW = institutional U-turn near-max-long) → composite (AAII<40 AND NAAIM<80) NO LONGER FIRES (broke NAAIM side, same as 5/31). VIX 16.40 complacent + SPX near ATH = froth rebuilding. DECISION: EXTEND 30% override → weekly 6/28; deploy basis weakened, dry powder maintained, deploy ONLY idiosyncratic oversold laggards NOT index chase. 0 new BUY. Free cash 7.13% thin (IB01 = dry powder). portfolio.md cash_policy_override.valid_until → weekly-2026-06-28.

✅ Weekly 6/21 MELI Q2 8/5 gate tracking — DONE (thesis-validating) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: MELI $1,635.15 (mtm +4.8% vs $1,560 entry; ROE 31.3%, target $2,217 +36%, rec buy). Argentina FX + Brazil credit temporary. Decision tree unchanged: (a) Q2 8/5 beat-raise + FX stabilize = escalate ADD; (b) second miss + guidance cut = TRIM/EXIT. Thesis intact HOLD.

✅ Weekly 6/21 IUES.L cycle monitoring — DONE (WTI broke below path-a) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: WTI $76.54 broke BELOW IUES.L path-a $78-82 zone (supply-driven 3rd day <$80, bearish NIE counter-cycle add — energy being sold). IUES.L $11.235 (mtm ~-5.5% vs $11.89 entry). EXIT trigger WTI <$80 sustained = WATCH (3rd day, not yet confirmed-sustained-exit). NO add (WTI below zone = supply-glut concern NIE clean entry). HOLD; energy capitulation watch.

✅ Weekly 6/21 4GLD.DE path-b DCA watch — DONE (gold far from path b) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: Gold $4,172.90 (2nd week risk-off, DXY >100.8; path a $4,394 +5.3% above drifted farther; path b $3,470-3,800 + RSI<40 = MEDIUM_full DCA +9.4% below, FAR). 4GLD.DE insurance role retained (€116.43, mtm ~-4% EUR). EXIT: gold <$4,000 + real rates >+1.5% = not hit. HOLD insurance.

✅ Weekly 6/21 UBER + HIG thesis tracking — DONE (thesis-intact) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED 6/21: UBER $71.64 (mtm -0.5% vs $72.02; fPE 16.2/ROE 35.3/target $104.5 +46%/strong_buy — thesis intact; escalate HIGH na Q2 13F ADD 8/14). HIG $128.25 (mtm +1.4% vs $126.48; P/E 9.0/ROE 22.7/target $147.65 +15%; CR<100 thesis; value-trap-adjacent → Q2 ~7/30 gate). Both HOLD.

🟢 Weekly 6/21 INTU T3 event-gate + stop-breach HOLD ⏳ in progress · due weekly-2026-06-21 — 6/21 WEEKLY: INTU $267.00 (RSI~31, -67% off 52W high $813, mtm -22% vs wavg $342). STOP-BREACH VERDICT = HOLD (no TRIM) — score 5/6 STRONG (fPE 9.8/ROE 22.5/target $488 +83%/32 buy intact); breach macro/AI-disruption-driven NIE idiosynkr. DECISION: NIE add price-based T3 (averaging down falling-knife na AI-disruption fear łamie disruption-Y cap). T3 (~$120/+1.5% → 5%) event-gated: (b) Intuit Assist GenAI Q4 FY26 ~Aug; (c) 13F ADD 8/14. Escalate TRIM tylko na 2-3 closes idiosynkr. weakness.

✅ FOMC 6/17 outcome eval — DONE (hawkish-read hold) ✅ done · due 2026-06-17 — EXECUTED: FOMC 6/17 = hold (Fed funds 3.63%), market read dot-plot/presser jako 'higher-for-longer'. Reaction: risk-off (SPX -1.21%, VIX 18.44, DXY >100, gold -1.2%, 2Y +15bp bear-flatten 4.05→4.20). Then 6/18 semis-led relief rally (VIX 18.44→16.40). Dual-cuts H2 thesis = market pushing later. Regime late_cycle_reflation intact. Next FOMC ~7/29.

✅ MSFT T1 fill watch — DONE (executed 6/15) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-21 — EXECUTED: MSFT counter-cycle probe T1 FILLED 6/15 @ $396.57 = 0.5045 sh / $200.07 / 2.50% NAV (funded IB01 trim). T2 (~2.5% → 5%) gated (≤$370+RSI<35 / Q4 FY26 / injection) — tracked via recurring framework. Position logged portfolio.md.

✅ Weekly 6/28 framework calibration — DONE (composite BROKE both sides) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: (1) 0 new BUY — composite sentiment #4 now BROKEN on BOTH sides (AAII 44.9>40 first time ~8wk AND NAAIM 98.59>80 near-max-long) = sentiment OPTIMISM, deploy window CLOSED. STRONG scorers WM/ET/PBR/TSM/MU/CME/INTU all cyclical-capped (ET/PBR energy WTI-$69 falling-knife), held (INTU/MSFT/GOOG), or semis-unwind (TSM/MU). (2) Cycle drift: WTI $69.23 sub-$70 2 weeks (IUES EXIT-watch, no add). (3) Crowded ~4/5 (NAAIM near-max + AAII flip-bullish + VIX 18.4 complacent + SPX near-ATH; offset SPX -3% off high). (4) Alpha: down week SPX -1.6% (7473→7354); cash+T-bills 57% hedge cushioned. Deferred flip check: 0 flips (LMT/CB/INTU all WAIT; GOOG/MSFT executed-complete; ACN rejected).

✅ Weekly 6/28 cash override re-decision — DONE (deploy basis GONE) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: composite (AAII<40 AND NAAIM<80) now BROKEN on BOTH sides — AAII 44.9 (>40, retail flipped bullish) AND NAAIM 98.59 (>80, near-max-long). Sentiment-normalize basis for the 30% override is GONE: both cohorts crowded-bullish into a down week on hot Core PCE 3.40%. DECISION: maintain cautious dry-powder stance, 0 new BUY; deploy ONLY idiosyncratic deeply-oversold laggards. Free cash 0.01% NAV (fully allocated; IB01.L 48% = liquid dry powder, cash+T-bills ~57%). 0 DCA fills this week (all gated). Override re-decision → monthly 7/1 / weekly 7/5. portfolio.md cash_policy_override.valid_until → weekly-2026-06-28 reached (carry to 7/1 monthly full re-assess).

✅ Weekly 6/28 MELI Q2 8/5 gate tracking — DONE (thesis-validating) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: MELI $1,675.10 (mtm +7.4% vs $1,560 entry; ROE strong, target $2,217 +32%, rec buy, score 4/6 zone). Off -36.7% off 52W high. Thesis intact. Decision tree unchanged: (a) Q2 8/5 beat-raise + FX stabilize = escalate ADD; (b) second miss + guidance cut = TRIM/EXIT. HOLD.

🔍 Weekly 6/28 IUES.L cycle monitoring — DONE (WTI sub-$70 2wk, EXIT-watch) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: WTI $69.23 sub-$70 for ~2 weeks running, below <$80 thesis-line. Driver = supply/Iran-peace (HY OAS 2.78 credit calm = NIE recession-demand). IUES.L $11.30 (mtm ~-5% vs $11.89 entry, off -15.7% off 52W high, score 2/6). EXIT trigger = WTI <$80 SUSTAINED — running but credit calm keeps it a WATCH not EXIT. NO add (falling knife, Rule #4 pro-cyclical guard). HOLD with active EXIT-watch.

🥇 Weekly 6/28 4GLD.DE path-b DCA watch — DONE (gold far from path b) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: Gold $4,096.30 (consolidating ~$4,100; path a $4,394 +7.3% above; path b $3,470-3,800 + RSI<40 = +8-18% below = FAR). 4GLD.DE insurance role retained (score 0/6 = no entry signal, expected for held insurance). EXIT: gold <$4,000 + real rates >+1.5% = not hit (TIPS 10Y real 2.16). HOLD insurance.

✅ Weekly 6/28 UBER + HIG thesis tracking — DONE (both recovered) ✅ done · due weekly-2026-06-28 — EXECUTED 6/28: UBER $76.20 (mtm +5.8% vs $72.02 entry, off -25.3%, target +37% strong_buy, score 4/6) — escalate HIGH only na super-investor Q2 13F ADD (8/14). HIG $133.89 (mtm +5.9% vs $126.48 entry, off only -7.3% = strong recovery, target +10% buy, score 4/6) — value-trap-adjacent test: Q2 ~7/30 combined ratio <100 + EPS beat = confirm; CR>100 = TRIM/EXIT. Both thesis intact, HOLD.

🟢 Weekly 6/28 INTU T3 event-gate + stop monitoring — IN_PROGRESS (HOLD-with-stop) ⏳ in progress · due weekly-2026-07-05 — EXECUTED 6/28: INTU $267.72 (RSI 37.7, off -67% off 52W high, mtm -22% vs wavg $342, score 5/6 STRONG, fPE 9.8, target +82%). HOLD-with-stop: weakness is macro/AI-disruption-driven NIE idiosynkr. (5/6 STRONG confirms fundamentals intact). T3 (~$120/+1.5% → 5%) event-gated: (b) Intuit Assist GenAI Q4 FY26 ~Aug; (c) 13F ADD 8/14 — both future, NOT fired. NIE price/RSI add (falling-knife discipline, T2 price-leg retired). Ongoing position-watch → in_progress.

✅ Core PCE May 6/26 + monthly 7/1 prep — DONE (one-off) ✅ done · due 2026-06-26 — EXECUTED: (1) Core PCE May = 3.40% YoY (released 6/26 8:30 ET, FRED PCEPILFE; +0.11pp vs April 3.29%; highest since Oct'23, AT the 3.4% regime-bearish line; headline PCE 4.10% 3-yr high). Regime read: sticky-3% plateau CONFIRMED, late_cycle_reflation × trim intact (sticky NIE breakout); market risk-off via multiple compression, VIX spiked then faded. (2) Monthly 7/1 Q3-start prep flagged: stale review 6d (first cohort 4/26 ~2m verified), counter rotation (MO/AM/AWK/WTRG/SSE.L negative-2 + CB drop-confirm), Fama-French attribution refresh.

🔄 Weekly 7/5 framework calibration — recurring od #67 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — Re-eval framework validity (3 active recs + 12 positions) po kolejnych 5 trading days (July-4-shortened week). Required evidence: (1) 4-pillar verdict (counter-cycle discipline / cycle drift WoW / sentiment crowded count / alpha cost); (2) deferred flip check (LMT/CB/INTU + held names); (3) explicit numerical 7/5 vs 6/28 (per-trigger drift, AAII/NAAIM fresh, alpha). Bez evidence — in_progress.

🔄 Weekly 7/5 cash override re-decision — recurring od #68 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — Composite BROKE both sides 6/28 (AAII 44.9 / NAAIM 98.59 = OPTIMISM). Required 7/5: re-eval (a) AAII/NAAIM fresh (czy froth unwinds / composite re-approaches fire); (b) deploy posture vs monthly 7/1 full re-assess outcome; (c) free cash vs ops floor (0.01% — trim IB01 before any fill); (d) any DCA fills. Cross-ref monthly 7/1 cash decision.

🔄 Weekly 7/5 MELI Q2 8/5 gate tracking — recurring od #69 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — MELI position-thesis-watch. Required: re-fetch close/RSI + Argentina FX/Brazil credit reads. Decision tree: (a) Q2 8/5 beat-raise + FX stabilize = escalate ADD; (b) second miss + guidance cut = TRIM/EXIT.

🔍 Weekly 7/5 IUES.L cycle monitoring — recurring od #70 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — Position 4% NAV thesis-watch. WTI $69.23 sub-$70 2wk (supply/Iran-peace, credit calm = NIE recession). Required: re-fetch WTI close + EXIT-trigger eval (WTI <$80 SUSTAINED = TRIM/EXIT) + OPEC+ + DXY. NIE add (falling knife). Energy stabilize/capitulation watch; NFP 7/2 demand read.

🥇 Weekly 7/5 4GLD.DE path-b DCA watch — recurring od #71 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — Insurance role. Gold $4,096 (~$4,100 consolidation). Monitor path b deeper pullback $3,470-3,800 + RSI<40 = MEDIUM_full DCA. EXIT: gold <$4,000 + real rates >+1.5%. Required: gold close + RSI; escalate only if mean-reverts toward $3,800.

🔄 Weekly 7/5 UBER + HIG thesis tracking — recurring od #72 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — Position-thesis-watch. UBER: escalate HIGH na super-investor Q2 13F ADD (8/14). HIG: value-trap-adjacent — Q2 ~7/30 combined ratio <100 + EPS beat = confirm; CR>100 = TRIM/EXIT. Required: re-fetch close/RSI + thesis-intact check.

🟢 Weekly 7/5 INTU T3 event-gate + stop monitoring — recurring od #73 · due weekly-2026-07-05 — INTU held 3.51% NAV ($267.72, RSI 37.7, -67% off high, 5/6 STRONG, HOLD-with-stop). Required 7/5: re-fetch close — track czy 2-3 kolejne closes na idiosynkr. (NIE macro/disruption) słabości = escalate TRIM; stabilizacja = HOLD. T3 (~$120/+1.5% → 5%) event-gated: (b) Intuit Assist GenAI Q4 FY26 ~Aug; (c) 13F ADD 8/14. NIE price/RSI add (falling-knife discipline, T2 retired).

Stale review preparation (2026-07-01 Q3 start) · due monthly-2026-07-01 — Q3-start monthly 7/1 — stale review 6d FIRES (first cohort 2026-04-26 candidates ~2.5m verified; price-drift >20% off entry flags). Prep candidate list + drop confirmations.

🔄 Discovery scan triangulation — recurring monthly (→ 7/1) · due monthly-2026-07-01 — Monthly discovery scan — 2-source triangulation (finviz QV screen + dataroma super-investor adds). Refresh verified pipeline; promote candidates with counter.positive ≥2.

🔄 Conviction tier audit — recurring monthly (→ 7/1) · due monthly-2026-07-01 — Monthly conviction-tier audit per active rec — disqualifier/value-trap/disruption/cycle-position/counter-cycle 6-test re-validation.

🚨 Position Q2 confirmation gates — GEHC/META 7/29, MELI 8/5 · due monthly-2026-07-01 — Q2 earnings confirmation gates: GEHC 7/29 (second miss + guidance cut → TRIM/EXIT), META 7/29 (capex/ad-rev; guidance cut → TRIM), MELI 8/5 (Argentina FX temporary vs structural), HIG ~7/30 (CR<100 test), UBER 13F 8/14.

🔎 CME verify + MO/UNH/TTWO drop-confirm — monthly 7/1 · due monthly-2026-07-01 — CME (5/6 STRONG but needs_verification edge case — exchange rate/vol-sensitive thesis) deliberate verify. MO soft-drop confirm (counter -2/2), UNH/TTWO/WTRG soft-drop review. Monthly 7/1 rotation.