Trader Live Dashboard

Long-term equity advisor · Advisor mode · Pre-market refresh

📅 2026-05-01 Fri ✓ Pre-market 13:30 CEST 🎯 7 pending recs

NAV

$4,000.58

1 pos · 50.2% cash

Alpha YTD (od 2026-04-26)

-0.320pp

TWR 0.000% · SPY +0.320%

SPX last close

7,209

↑ +1.02% d/d · NDX +0.98%

Verified candidates

~62

cap 30 · cleanup gradual

Macro regime

Late-cycle reflation

—

Sentiment

Euforia

AAII 46.0% · NAAIM 94.15

📖 Jak czytać ten dashboard (klik aby rozwinąć) Glossary + scoring + colors

🎯 Scoring system (entry signals)

Każdy kandydat dostaje score 0-6 wg 6 niezależnych kryteriów. Im wyższy score, tym mocniejszy "kup" sygnał. Punkty można interpretować jako "ile znaków drogowych mówi 'idź'":

5-6/6 🚀 STRONG — większość kryteriów aligned, high conviction setup
4/6 ⚡ Entry zone — solid setup, worth manual review
3/6 Watch — neutralny, czeka na confirmation
≤2/6 — brak setupu, regular tracking

3 frameworki scoring (per typ aktywa):

US corporate (TSM, ACN): 6 kryteriów = cena 52W, RSI, insider buying, super-investor 13F, earnings beat, target raised
International corporate (BATS.L, ISP.MI): yfinance auto Crit 1+2+5+6 = max 4/4 (≥3 STRONG · 2 zone · 1 watch). Crit 3 insider + Crit 4 super-investor są manual — sprawdzane ręcznie w weekly review, nie liczą się do score.
ETP macro v2 (4GLD, IUES.L, BIL): scoring na bazie macro signals (Fed, oil cycle, USD direction) — bo ETP nie mają earnings/insider. Country/Sector ETFs (EWJV/ENOR/EWS, SMH/CIBR.UK/XLE) używają generic relative-strength (3M vs SPY + regime proxy: VIX dla sektorów, DXY dla krajów) jako macro — sector/country-specific drivers (AI capex dla semis, oil supply dla energy, BOJ dla Japan) wymagają cycle-position check w weekly deep dive (portfolio.md:362-389), nie są w generic framework. Top-decile cycle = ⚠️ flag w dashboard.

🟢🟡🔵 Conviction tiers (advisor recommendations)

HIGH 🟢 — 2+ source triangulation + entry zone + super-investor signal + brak negatives. Najmocniejsze sygnały.
MEDIUM 🟡 — 1-2 sygnały, akcja zalecana ale poczekaj na timing/dolewkę
LOW 🔵 — speculative probe, małe wagi (1-3% NAV)

📦 Sleeves (kategorie portfela)

Portfel podzielony na sleeve = kategorię alokacji dla risk management:

Core / Quality — fundament, US large-cap mega-caps (MSFT, V, ACN)
Commodities — gold, silver, oil, copper, uranium (4GLD, IUES.L)
Tactical / Themes — semis, defense, gaming (TSM, NOC)
International — Europe / Japan / EM
Income / Defensive — utilities, REITs, MLPs
Cash — T-Bills (BIL/IB01), buffer

🌐 Macro & sentiment metryki — co znaczą

Fed Funds — stopa banku centralnego USA. ↓ = easing (good for stocks/gold), ↑ = tightening
10Y / 2Y yield — rentowności obligacji 10/2 lat. 10Y-2Y spread: >0 = krzywa normal, <0 = inwersja (recesyjny sygnał)
HY OAS — premia ryzyka high-yield bonds. <3% = euforia kredytowa, >5% = stress
NFCI — Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index. <0 = loose (risk-on), >0 = tight (stress)
VIX — wskaźnik strachu. <15 = complacency, 15-25 normal, >30 = panic
DXY — indeks dolara USA. ↓ = USD weakness (good for gold/EM/commodities)
AAII bullish % — % retail investorów bullish. >46% historycznie blisko top (kontrarian)
NAAIM exposure — ekspozycja institutional managers (0-100). >90 = max long
Core CPI YoY — inflacja core. Cel Fed 2.0%, >2.5% = sticky

📊 Factor attribution (Fama-French 5F)

Co "wygrało" w rynku akcji w ostatnich 12 miesiącach:

Mkt-RF = market return ponad risk-free rate (ile zarobił rynek)
SMB = small minus big (czy small-caps biły large-caps)
HML 💎 = high minus low book-to-market (czy value stocks biły growth)
RMW ⚠ = robust minus weak profitability (czy quality biło junk)
CMA = conservative minus aggressive investment (czy disciplined biło aggressive)

📊 Performance (TWR vs SPY)

TWR = Time-Weighted Return — neutralizuje timing wpłat (multi-period geometric chain). Standard pomiaru wydajności portfela vs benchmark.
SPY = S&P 500 ETF — nasz benchmark. Jeśli portfel +10% a SPY +15% → alpha −5pp.
Alpha = TWR − SPY. Cel: pobić SPY w 3-5 lat.

🔄 Pipeline lifecycle

Każdy kandydat na watchliście przechodzi przez stany:

needs_verification — świeży, czeka na sanity check
verified — przeszedł triangulację, gotowy do entry
promote_candidate — 2+ positive checks z rzędu, propose to Wave
drop — auto-drop (hard conditions) lub manual

Counter logic: 2 positive z rzędu → promote · 2 negative z rzędu → soft-drop proposal

Monthly v3 final — 4 lekcje w jednym dniu + status fix. 7 ⏸ deferred Wave 1+2 (4 commodities/value + 3 defense/insurance). Wszystkie counter-cycle conditional triggers: WAIT for trigger touch, NIE execute now. TWR YTD −0.020% vs SPY −0.33% = +0.31pp alpha. 7 ⏸ deferred + 1 ✅ executed (IB01.L). New process: mandatory triple-disqualifier audit (Insider Trans + EPS5Y/P/E + Form 4 distribution pattern) PRZED każdym BUY proposal. Status semantyka: deferred = advisor recommends WAIT, pending = decision required. 🔁 NOC SUPERSEDED → LMT (insider -13.76% disqualifier #1 + multi-flag thesis impairment) · ↓ CB DOWNGRADE MEDIUM-HIGH → MEDIUM (insider -8.43% + EPS5Y 8.71% AND P/E 11.73 = value-trap-adjacent setup) · ✅ Counter-cycle triggers v3: TSM ≤$370 RSI<50 · CB ≤$300 RSI<40 · LMT ≤$490 RSI<25 · +4 NEW verified: UBER, PGR, CPRT, LMT (NOC→LMT swap); 2 dropped (WTRG, UNI.MC) · FF SMB regime shift +5.54pp Mom · cycle position top decile (gold 96th, silver 92nd, WTI 87th) Pełny raport: reports/2026-04-28_monthly.md · source: monthly-2026-04-28.

📡 Pre-market 2026-05-01 (Fri)

⏰ Today's brief 13:30 CEST · health ⚠️

Indices (close 4/30):

🟢 Pre-market movers up

AAPL+3.79% $281.62 · post-AMC 4/30 BEAT (earnings catalyst, NIE verified watchlis…

SAP+2.13% $173.00 · Quality compounder, no specific catalyst — possible post-AAP…

🔴 Pre-market movers down

MU-2.03% $506.65 · semis sympathy fade po MSFT/AMZN AGS commentary; no fresh ti…

📅 Earnings dziś

AAPLpre-mkt $281.62 (+3.79% z $271.35) 🚨 = BEAT, biggest pre-mkt move w portfolio/wa…

AMZNpre-mkt $262.37 (-1.02% z $265.06) = mixed reaction, soft AWS/AGS guidance likel…

⚡ Calendar / co obserwować: Friday 2026-05-01, NFP day (US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET / 14:30 CEST). NFP consensus typically ~150-200k April; unemployment rate 4.3% benchmark. Major risk-on/risk-off catalyst dziś po close · XOM, CVX earnings BMO (energy supermajors Q1) — already published pre-mkt window, mild bids confirm in-line reaction. · AAPL, AMZN AMC 4/30 → today processing — AAPL beat (+3.79% pre-mkt), AMZN mixed (-1.02% pre-mkt). Mega-cap rotation cd. · No FOMC (4/29 already happened; next ~mid-June). · AAII / NAAIM fresh prints — AAII Thursday print 4/30 may post to FRED late today (Friday) lub Monday; NAAIM Wednesday print 4/29 — może pojawić się dziś.

🎯 Flash recommendations: Brak catalyst trigger dziś — żadnej nowej rekomendacji. Aktualne pending: 7 (patrz `recommendations.md`).

🎯 Aktywne rekomendacje · tryb doradcy

🎯 Propozycje doradcy 7 aktywnych

⏳ oczekuje decyzji ⏸ czeka na sygnał ✅ wykonane ❌ odrzucone

Konkretne propozycje KUP / SPRZEDAJ / TRZYMAJ / TRIM od Claude'a. Każda ma wielkość, kategorię, poziom pewności (HIGH 🟢 / MEDIUM 🟡 / LOW 🔵), termin ważności i warunek wejścia. Najedź na warunek by zobaczyć pełen tekst.

Status	Akcja	Ticker	Wielkość	Kategoria	Pewność	Ważne do	Warunek wejścia	Uzasadnienie
⏸	KUP	TSM	$160 (4%)	Tactical / Themes	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-06-01 monthly	≤$370 + RSI<50 + RSI<40 · Q-beat · selloff >5%	Score 5/6 STRONG. Counter 2/0 promote_candidate. Trigger v2 (Rule #4 fix): pullback do ...
⏸	KUP	LMT	$160 (4%)	Tactical / Themes	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-06-01 monthly	≤$490 + RSI<25 · insider buy · Q2-beat	P/E 24.76 / FwdP/E 15.96 / PEG 0.96 / EPS5Y 16.57% / ROE 67.6% / RSI ~19 (Wilder's, dee...
⏸	KUP	CB	$160 (4%)	Income / Defensive	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-06-01 monthly	≤$300 + RSI<40 · Berkshire ADD	DOWNGRADE MEDIUM 🟡 (v3): disqualifier #1 (insider -8.43% distribution at peak) + disqua...
⏸	KUP	⭐ ACN	$160 (4%)	Core/Quality	MEDIUM 🟡	ACN Q-earnings call (May 2026)	insider buy · Q-beat	Value-trap risk: insider -2.59% + 0 buys 90d, EPS5Y 7.92% + P/E 14.6 (classic trap), AI...
⏸	KUP	⚡ IUES.L	$160 (4%)	Commodities / Energy	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-05-03 weekly	≥$90 + $78-82	Rule #4 cycle: WTI 68th pct upper-mid + crowded 4-5/5. Mid-cycle continuation bet, nie ...
⏸	KUP	🥇 4GLD.DE	$160 (4%)	Precious metals	LOW 🔵	2026-05-03 weekly	≤$4,394 + ≤$3,470 + RSI<50 + RSI<40	Rule #4 cycle: gold 84th pct top decile (-11% off ATH $5,318) + crowded 4/4. Insurance ...
⏸	KUP	🥈 ISLN.UK	$160 (4%)	Precious metals	MEDIUM 🟡	2026-05-03 weekly	<$60 + >$85	Helper data: silver 60th pct upper-mid (corrected z 99th visual estimate). Gold-silver ...

📖 Słownik (statusy, poziomy pewności, akcje)

Statusy

⏳ oczekuje — wystawione, czeka na Twoją decyzję
⏸ czeka na sygnał — doradca rekomenduje wait do trigger touch
✅ wykonane — pozycja otwarta/zamknięta
❌ odrzucone — Twoje veto z powodem
⏰ wygasłe — minęła data ważności
🔁 zastąpione — nowsza wersja istnieje

Poziom pewności

HIGH 🟢 2+ źródła + entry zone + super-investor + brak negative
MEDIUM 🟡 1-2 sygnały, akcja zalecana ale poczekaj na timing
LOW 🔵 spekulacyjne, małe wagi 1-3% NAV

Akcje

KUP — otwórz pozycję / dokup
SPRZEDAJ — zamknij pozycję
TRIM — częściowa sprzedaż
TRZYMAJ — bez zmian

🎯 Ticker selection hierarchy — dlaczego TEN ticker, nie inny

🎯 Ranked picks per thesis subsegment-driven

Gdy multiple tickerów ma same score (np. 9 energy 5/6 STRONG), selection hierarchy decyduje którego wybrać. Level 1: subsegment diversification (broad / services / supermajor / E&P / MLP / EM) — pickuj jednego z każdego. Level 2: tiebreaker (UCITS, TER, super-investors, insider). Level 3: risk profile match per Wave. Level 4: max 2-3 per thesis. Pełna canonical reference: portfolio.md.

🛢 Energy thesis (9 STRONG, ranked)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	⚡ IUES.L	Broad ETF UCITS	Wave 1 ✅	picked	Diversified anchor · TER 0.15% · UCITS Acc · USD-denom symetria z IB01
2	OIHV.L	Oil services UCITS	Wave 2	candidate	Different subsegment (services capex leverage) · UCITS · TER 0.35%
3	CVX	Supermajor (quality)	Wave 3	candidate	Buffett's energy stake = quality stamp · defensive blue-chip · #2 XLE holding
4	EOG	E&P shale	Wave 3-4	candidate	Yacktman + Nygren super-investors · low-cost producer · YTD +27%
5	AM	Midstream MLP	Wave 4	candidate	Dividend ~6-7% income tilt · Kahn Brothers + Greenberg holds
6	PBR	EM Energy value	Wave 4+	candidate	P/E 6.9 deep value · governance + political risk balanced przez tier
—	HAL	Oil services single	skip	overlap	HAL = top OIHV.L holding (~25%) · OIHV.L już covers
—	XOM	Supermajor	skip	overlap	Overlap z CVX · mniejszy super-investor signal niż CVX
—	ET	Midstream MLP	skip	overlap	Overlap z AM · same subsegment, AM cleaner thesis (natgas focus)

🥇 Precious metals thesis (5 candidates, ranked)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	🥇 4GLD.DE	Physical gold ETC	Wave 1 ✅	picked	Najtańszy gold w EU (TER ~0%) · physical-backed · EUR-denom currency hedge
2	ISLN.UK	Physical silver ETC	Wave 2 conditional	candidate	Different metal · gold/silver pair · UCITS TER 0.20%
3	NEM	Gold miner single	Wave 3+	candidate	Leverage do gold spot 2-3x · First Eagle blessing · PEG 0.47
—	B	Gold/Cu hybrid	skip	overlap	Gold-dominant + copper · NEM cleaner pure-gold thesis
—	WPM	Silver streaming corp	skip	overlap	Overlap z ISLN — corporate risk vs pure ETC, ISLN cleaner

⚙ Industrial metals thesis (3 candidates)

#	Ticker	Subsegment	Wave	Status	Rationale
1	COPX	Diversified miners ETF	Wave 3	candidate	Pure copper exposure · diversified miners · ETP 4/6
2	VALE	Iron + EV materials	Wave 3-4	candidate	EM exposure · 2 insider buys · Hybrid 2/4 + ETP 5/6 STRONG · cheap FwdP/E 8
—	RIO	Diversified mining	skip	overlap	Overlap z COPX (diversified) i VALE (iron+) — same subsegment combos

💡 Key insight: z 17 STRONG/entry zone tickerów we 3 commodity sleeves → realistycznie wystarczy 3-4 picks per thesis aby pokryć 80% exposure. Reszta = redundancy nie diversification. Anti-concentration cap (max 2-3 per thesis) wymusza tę selektywność.

📊 Sleeve allocation vs target — glide path

📊 Sleeve allocation vs target Late-cycle reflation · stage: TRIM regime

Wagi celowe (% NAV) per sleeve zależą od macro regime. Target ranges (low-high) z `portfolio.md` → "Sleeve targets" (YAML). Anti-concentration: max ±5pp od target → flag rebalance. Glide path: Wave 1 (now) → Wave 4 → steady state ($5-10k+ NAV).
Current weights computed live z `portfolio.md` "Pozycje otwarte" YAML blocks + free cash. Cash override (jeśli aktywny) flagowany w status column.

Sleeve	Current % NAV	Target range	Δ vs target	Status
Cash / Yield	100.0%	13.0-32.5% (base 10-25)	+67.5pp over	⚠ override target 50% (regime 13.0-32.5%) — valid until weekly-2026-05-03
Core / Quality	0.0%	22.5-31.5% (base 25-35)	−22pp empty	empty
🥇 Precious metals	0.0%	5-10%	−5pp empty	empty
🛢 Energy	0.0%	5.0-7.5% (base 10-15)	−5pp empty	empty
⚙ Industrial metals	0.0%	2.5-5.0% (base 5-10)	−2pp empty	empty
⚛ Uranium	0.0%	0.0-3.5% (base 0-5)	on target	OK
Tactical / Themes	0.0%	7.0-14.0% (base 10-20)	−7pp empty	empty
International	0.0%	0-5%	on target	OK
Income / Defensive	0.0%	6.5-13.0% (base 5-10)	−6pp empty	empty

Glide path Waves (z `portfolio.md` "Glide path" YAML): Wave 1 (now) → Wave 2 (po weekly trigger) → Wave 3 (po monthly trigger) → Wave 4 → steady state.

💡 Anti-concentration rule: max 2-3 pozycje per macro thesis. Sleeve cap +5pp tolerated; over → flag rebalance w next weekly/monthly.

Catalysts & trigger watch

🎯 Conditional triggers 9 total · ✅ 0 · 📍 2

Triggery z catalysts.md "Conditional / Thesis triggers" — każdy z live current value + status: ✅ TRIGGERED (wystaw rec) · 📍 CLOSE (within 10% threshold) · ⏸ FAR (>20% off). Aktualizowane przy każdym dashboard rebuild.

Trigger / Akcja jeśli aktywuje	Current	Status	Pozycja
WTI pullback do $78-82 → Upgrade IUES.L deferred → BUY HIGH 🟢 + add OIHV.L Wave 2	WTI $104.19	⏸ far (27% above zone)	deferred
WTI hold >$90 + VIX rising 4+ tyg → Upgrade IUES.L deferred → BUY HIGH 🟢 (regime-shift entry)	WTI $104 ✓ · VIX 16.9 (cooling 5d 17.7/20d 19.2) ✗	📍 partial (WTI only)	deferred
Gold pullback do $4,394 + RSI <50 → Upgrade 4GLD.DE LOW 🔵 → MEDIUM probe ($160)	Gold $4,586 · 4GLD RSI 41.6	📍 close (+4.4% to price; RSI ✓<50)	deferred
Gold pullback do $3,470-3,800 + RSI <40 → Upgrade 4GLD.DE LOW 🔵 → BUY MEDIUM full ($260) + DCA	Gold $4,586 · 4GLD RSI 41.6	⏸ far (+20% above zone RSI ✗<40)	deferred
Silver <$60 lub G/S ratio >70 → Upgrade ISLN.UK MEDIUM → BUY	AG $74.23 ✗ · G/S 61.79 ✗ · ISLN RSI 45.4	⏸ far (G/S gap +8.2 do >70)	deferred
GOOG RSI <50 lub price <$320 → Promote watching → BUY rec	RSI 82.5 ✗ · $382 ✗	⏸ far (both fail)	watching
AAII bullish <40% → Cash buffer override expires → deploy speed-up	46.0%	⏸ far	global
SPY -5-10% pullback → ACN value entry zone aktywuje się	-0.16% z 60d high	⏸ far (no pullback)	deferred
VIX spike >25 sustained → Pause new entries · trim defensive sleeve flag	16.89	⏸ far	global

📅 Top events (next 7d) 16 ticker · 10 macro

Top 5 nadchodzących events z catalysts.md "Ten tydzień" — filtered dla portfolio + deferred + watching pipeline. Pełna lista: catalysts.md.

Data	Ticker / Event	Pozycja
4/29 Wed 14:00 ET / 20:00 CEST	FOMC statement (non-SEP meeting — NO dot plot) — 🚨 Major catalyst	—
4/29 Wed 8:15 ET	ADP private payrolls — NFP preview	—
4/30 Thu 8:30 ET	Core PCE March — Fed's preferred inflation gauge	—
5/1 BMO	XOM earnings	deferred
5/1 Fri 8:30 ET	NFP April — 🚨 Major catalyst	—

Last refresh: 2026-04-28 (monthly run, off-cycle Tue pre-FOMC — quarterly · Auto-refresh przy weekly (Sun 20:00 CEST) + monthly run.

Stan portfela & performance

💼 Portfolio NAV $4,000.58

Aktualny stan portfela. NAV (Net Asset Value) = wartość portfela = cash + pozycje po current price. Wszystkie wagi (% NAV) liczone proporcjonalnie do tego.

NAV$4,000.58

Otwarte pozycje1

Allocated$1,991.17 · 49.8%

Free cash$2,009.41 · 50.2%

Cash flow ledger+$4,000 contributed (2 deposits)

📈 Performance (TWR) cumulative + live SPY

Wydajność portfela vs benchmark SPY (S&P 500). Cumulative rows (od 2026-04-26) parsed z performance.md ## YTD section (TWR sub-period method neutralizes cash flows). SPY 1d/WTD/1m/1Y rows pulled live z yfinance per build. Alpha YTD = TWR YTD − SPY YTD (cumulative; main metric). Alpha 1d = MTM mark-to-market vs SPY 1d (daily snapshot, mixed timeframe — limited semantic).

TWR YTD (od 2026-04-26)0.000%

SPY YTD (od 2026-04-26)+0.320%

🎯 Alpha YTD (cumulative)-0.320pp

— Daily snapshot (mixed timeframe, limited) —

MTM vs cost basis+0.01%

SPY 1d+0.99%

Alpha (1d snapshot)-0.98pp

— SPY benchmark context —

SPY close (2026-04-30)$718.66

SPY WTD (5d)+1.44%

SPY 1m+10.51%

SPY 1Y+30.16%

Pozycje · Win rate1 pos · live (1d) · n/d (0 trades)

Cumulative TWR YTD + Alpha YTD parsed z performance.md (refreshed by post-close + weekly). SPY rows live z yfinance per build. Pełen daily NAV history → chain geometric TWR planowany Wave 2.

🧠 Sentiment regime macro.md

Jak inwestorzy postrzegają rynek. Często kontrarian — max bullish historycznie blisko top, max bearish blisko bottom. Klasyfikacja: panic → fear → neutral → optimism → euphoria. Wartości z `macro.md` "Current snapshot" YAML.

EUFORIA

AAII bullish46.0%

NAAIM exposure94.15

FINRA margin debt$1.221T -4.5%

Konsument UMich53.3

Source: `macro.md` "Current snapshot" sentiment_indicators block (refreshed weekly + monthly). Caveat: AAII top decile historycznie często poprzedza krótkoterminowy pullback.

📊 Otwarte pozycje 1 pos · $2,009.41 free cash

Aktualne pozycje w portfelu (z portfolio.md "Pozycje otwarte"). Cost basis = ilość × cena wejścia. Live = ostatni close 15m bar z yfinance (best-effort, "—" jeśli offline). P/L = (live − entry) / entry. Free cash to dry powder dla confirming-signal-triggered DCA — patrz portfolio.md "Cash policy override" dla rationale current sizing'u.

Ticker	Kierunek	Ilość	Cena wej.	Live	P/L	Cost basis	Data wej.	Teza
IB01.L	LONG	16.56	$120.21	$120.24	+0.02% ($+0.50)	$1,990.59	2026-04-27	Pseudo-cash w yield-bearing T-Bills 0-1Y UCITS — XTB nie płaci odsetek na free cash USD. Hedge na pullback (sell IB01 → buy quality tanie...

Allocated: $1,991.17 (49.8% NAV) · Free cash: $2,009.41 (50.2% NAV) · Total NAV: $4,000.58.

Macro & factor regime

🌐 Macro regime FRED 4Y

Co się dzieje w gospodarce — kluczowe wskaźniki. Late-cycle reflation = późny cykl + powrót inflacji + Fed easing. Sprzyja: commodities, energy, EM. Niebezpieczne: stagflation pivot. Threshold: 10Y-2Y >0 = krzywa normal · HY OAS <3% = euforia kredytowa · VIX <20 = complacency · DXY <100 = USD weak.

ReżimLate-cycle reflation

Cycle stage🟡 Trim (reduce cyclical, increase defensive)

Fed Funds3.64% easing cycle

Core CPI YoY+2.6% YoY

Core PCE YoY+2.97% YoY Fed's preferred

10Y / 2Y / 3M4.39 / 3.92 / 3.59 stable

10Y-2Y spread+47 bp dis-inverted

VIX17.0 calm

HY OAS2.82% tight

NFCI-0.518 loose

DXY · Gold · WTI97.96 · $4584.5 · $104.22 reflation

Silver · Copper · NatGas$74.01 · $5.97 · $2.78

Unemployment · claims4.3% · 189k

📊 Factor attribution FF 5F · 12m → 2026-02-28

Co "wygrało" w rynku akcji w ostatnich 12 mies (Fama-French 5-Factor model). HML 💎 = czy value > growth. RMW = czy quality > junk. Jeśli nasz portfel jest quality+value bias, dodatnie HML/RMW = tailwind. Wartości z `macro.md` "Current snapshot" YAML — refreshed monthly.

Mkt-RF

+12.24%

SMB

+2.3%

HML 💎

+6.73%

RMW ⚠

-5.63%

CMA

+2.52%

Value > growth (HML +6.73%) wspiera quality+value bias. RMW -5.63% = junk > quality, headwind dla pure quality compounders.

Entry signals (top candidates)

🚀 Entry signal scoring · 2026-04-28 v2 multi-framework · US/INTL/ETP

Każdy kandydat z watchlisty dostaje score 0-6 (im wyżej, tym mocniejszy "kup" sygnał). Kolumny: Licznik = positive/negative counter — 2 positive z rzędu → promote (BUY proposal w monthly), 2 negative → soft-drop · RSI <40 = oversold · −52W = jak daleko od 52W high · Insider = count buys 30d lub net Trans % · Beat = Q-earnings beat consensus. Score badges: 5-6/6 STRONG 4/6 Entry zone 3/6 Watch. Hybrid scoring (singles): "2/4 +ETP 5/6" = US corporate scoring + macro framework alignment combined.

Ticker	Klasa	Score	Licznik	RSI	−52W	Insider	Beat	Główne sygnały	Kontekst
🚀 STRONG signal (≥5/6) — najmocniejsze setupy
ET	Energy	5/6 🚀	1/0	53	-3.3%	4 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper · dowolny
SFM	Core/Quality	5/6 🚀	1/0	37	-60.1%	2 buys	✓	RSI oversold · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	—
TSM	Tactical	5/6 🚀	1/0	69	-6.1%	6 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Coleman, Mandel
WM	Core/Quality	5/6 🚀	1/0	45	-7.5%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny
🚀 STRONG signal (US framework max 3/4 weekly)
ISP.MI	Income/Defensive	3/4 🌍🚀	1/0	52	-6.1%	—	✓	off-high · beat · target↑	—
⚡ Entry zone — solid setup, manual review zalecany
ACN	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	1/0	33	-44.6%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	confirming signal: Q-beat-and-raise OR ≥1 insider Form ...
CB	Income/Defensive	4/6 ⚡	1/0	55	-3.9%	T:-8.4%	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Buffett, Davis, Olstein · WAIT — counter-cycle...
ENOR	Energy	4/6 ⚙️⚡	1/0	51	-3.4%	—	✗	off-high	dowolny
EOG	Energy	4/6 ⚡	1/0	47	-10.9%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Nygren · dowolny
HAL	Energy	4/6 ⚡	1/0	62	-0.4%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Pzena · dowolny — services subsegment
LMT	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	1/0	19	-26.1%	T:-0.0%	✗	RSI oversold · super-inv · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Gayner-Markel, Dodge & Cox · see...
MELI	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	1/0	56	-30.7%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	po sanity Q-earnings
MSFT	Core/Quality	4/6 ⚡	1/0	64	-23.9%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny — quality compounder
MU	Discovery	4/6 ⚡	1/0	73	-4.9%	2 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Tepper · high vol — wait dla earnings confirmation
NOC	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	1/0	18	-25.8%	0 (-13.8%)	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Yacktman, Torray · WATCH-ONLY do triple confir...
PANW	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	1/0	63	-16.9%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Mairs, Nygren
PBR	Energy	4/6 ⚡	1/0	58	-3.9%	1 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	value tilt
RTX	Tactical	4/6 ⚡	1/0	24	-18.7%	0 buys	✓	RSI oversold · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Olstein
SMH	Tactical	4/6 ⚙️⚡ ⚠	1/0	84	-3.7%	—	✗	off-high	semi cycle confirm (lub jako anchor tech)
SW	Income/Defensive	4/6 ⚡	1/0	45	-23.6%	1 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Ketterer
VALE	Industrial metals	4/6 ⚡	1/0	56	-6.1%	2 buys	✓	off-high · insider+ · super-inv · beat	dowolny — industrial cycle
👀 Watch (3/6) — neutralny, czeka na confirmation
B	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	44	-27.4%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: First Eagle · hybrid setup (gold + industrial)
BABA	EM	3/6	0/0	49	-32.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Tepper, Ketterer
BLK	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	60	-12.6%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: ValueAct, Nygren
BRK.B	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	44	-11.9%	3 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat	Holders: Li Lu
CCJ	Uranium	3/6	0/0	58	-11.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	uranium thesis
CNI	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	69	-0.7%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Watsa
COPX	Industrial metals	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	42	-21.3%	—	✗	—	copper cycle setup
CVX	Energy	3/6	0/0	41	-12.2%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Buffett · dowolny
EWJV	International	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	24	-10.7%	—	✗	RSI oversold	dowolny
EWS	Income/Defensive	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	37	-4.1%	—	✗	off-high · RSI oversold	dowolny
GOOG	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	72	-1.5%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Li Lu, Tepper · dowolny
HIG	Income/Defensive	3/6	0/0	48	-3.9%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Pzena · jeśli CB nie kupisz
INCY	Discovery	3/6	0/0	50	-14.5%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Dodge & Cox · dowolny
IUES.L	Energy	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	52	-9.3%	—	✗	off-high	see recommendations.md → BUY-IUES.L-2026-04-26 (3 condi...
META	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	62	-15.6%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: ValueAct, Dorsey
MO	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	51	-4.8%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Russo, Yacktman, Dodge & Cox
NEE	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	58	-1.8%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	dowolny — defensive anchor
NEM	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	53	-17.0%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: First Eagle · gold cycle setup (hybrid 2/4 + E...
OIHV.L	Energy	3/6 ⚙️	0/0	68	-1.5%	—	✗	off-high	po energy thesis confirmation
RIO	Industrial metals	3/6	0/0	61	-2.7%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	Holders: Dodge & Cox · dowolny
SAP	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	48	-44.1%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	dowolny po Q1 mixed → wait for Q2 reconfirm
TTWO	Tactical	3/6	0/0	58	-18.6%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Coleman · GTA6 release date confirmation lub T...
UNH	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	81	-15.4%	5 buys	✓	insider+ · super-inv · beat	dowolny — w trakcie korekty
V	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	50	-16.7%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	Holders: Akre, Smith, ValueAct · dowolny
VZ	Core/Quality	3/6	0/0	47	-7.8%	0 buys	✓	off-high · super-inv · beat	—
WPM	Precious metals	3/6	0/0	46	-20.1%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat · target↑	silver thesis
BATS.L	Income/Defensive	1/4 🌍	0/0	43	-11.6%	—	✗	target↑	—
SSE.L	Income/Defensive	1/4 🌍	0/0	43	-5.4%	—	✗	off-high	—
VIE.PA	Income/Defensive	1/4 🌍	0/0	66	-1.0%	—	✗	off-high	—
⏸ Macro thesis active, technical not yet ripe (2/6 — czekaj)
AM	Energy	2/6	0/0	46	-8.6%	0 buys	✗	off-high · super-inv	Holders: Greenberg, Kahn · dowolny
CPRT	Tactical	2/6	0/0	45	-47.8%	T:-0.2%	✗	super-inv · target↑	RSI <40 oversold + insider Form 4 buy = capitulation...
PGR	Income/Defensive	2/6	0/0	52	-29.9%	T:-1.3%	✓	super-inv · beat	WAIT — value-trap test FAILS (EPS5Y -4.04% AND P/E 10.3...
PHM	Income/Defensive	2/6	0/0	58	-10.4%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat	przy rate cut cycle
UBER	Tactical	2/6	0/0	51	-26.7%	T:-0.0%	✗	super-inv · target↑	Q1 earnings May 6 beat + AV/robotaxi adaptation evidenc...
XOM	Energy	2/6	0/0	41	-14.4%	0 buys	✓	super-inv · beat	dowolny — reflation play

Czytanie tabeli: sortowanie sekcjami od najsilniejszego (STRONG ≥5/6) do soft-drop. Każdy ticker raz, w swojej primary klasyfikacji. Hybrid score (np. CCJ "2/4 + ETP 3/6") = ticker scored przez oba frameworki — finviz US corporate AND macro ETP. Pokazujemy oba bo single stocks z commodity exposure mają both lenses.

Rate-sensitive equities (NEE/AWK/WTRG/CB/HIG) = single stocks z makro tailwind od Fed/yield curve. Hybrid scoring: finviz (US corporate signals — RSI, beat, insider) + ETP rate_sensitive (macro alignment). Krytyczna nota dla NEE: NIE jest pure regulated utility — growth utility z secondary thesis (AI datacenter power demand, Florida demographic expansion). Macro tailwind jest reinforcement, ale corporate growth story jest separate. Tier 3 ETP scoring 6 criteria: Crit 1 cena 52W · Crit 2 RSI · Crit 3 macro alignment (Fed Funds <4% ✓, 10Y yield falling, curve steepening ✓; ≥2 z 3 = 1pt) · Crit 4 momentum (10Y direction) · Crit 5 vol fit (VIX >20 = good) · Crit 6 USD direction.

Pełna watchlist per sleeve · ~62 verified

📋 Watchlist 62 tickets · cap 30 · sortowane per priorytet

Watchlist = lista kandydatów do obserwacji, NIE obowiązek kupna. Pogrupowane per sleeve (kategoria alokacji portfela). Liczby per sleeve = ile kandydatów w tej kategorii. Soft cap: max 30 verified (forces selectivity); aktualnie ~62 = nadwyżka, gradual cleanup w monthly tasks.

Kolejność tickerów per sleeve: 🚀 strong signal (≥3/4) → ★ NEW monthly → ⚡ entry zone (2/4) → standard verified → international → ▼ proposed soft-drop. Sleeves też posortowane: Core → Commodities → Tactical → Discovery → Income → International → EM → Cash.

Core / Quality 🚀2⚡3 15

1SFM 5/6 🚀2WM 5/6 🚀3ACN 4/6 ⚡4MELI 4/6 ⚡5MSFT 4/6 ⚡6BLK 3/67BRK.B 3/68CNI 3/69GOOG 3/610META 3/611MO 3/612SAP 3/613UNH 3/614V 3/615VZ 3/6

🚀 2 strong: SFM, WM · ⚡ 3 entry zone: ACN, MELI, MSFT

🥇 Precious metals (insurance) 5

1B 3/62NEM 3/63WPM 3/644GLD.DE 0/6 ⚙️5ISLN.UK 0/6 ⚙️

5 verified — regular tracking.

🛢 Energy (cycle bet) ⚡4 8

1ENOR 4/6 ⚙️⚡2EOG 4/6 ⚡3HAL 4/6 ⚡4PBR 4/6 ⚡5CVX 3/66IUES.L 3/6 ⚙️7OIHV.L 3/6 ⚙️8XOM 2/6

⚡ 4 entry zone: ENOR, EOG, HAL, PBR

⚙ Industrial metals (cycle bet) ⚡1 3

1VALE 4/6 ⚡2COPX 3/6 ⚙️3RIO 3/6

⚡ 1 entry zone: VALE

⚛ Uranium (thematic) 1

1CCJ 3/6

1 verified — regular tracking.

Tactical / Themes 🚀1⚡5 11

1TSM 5/6 🚀2LMT 4/6 ⚡3NOC 4/6 ⚡4PANW 4/6 ⚡5RTX 4/6 ⚡6SMH 4/6 ⚙️⚡⚠7TTWO 3/68CPRT 2/69UBER 2/610CIBR.UK 1/6 ⚙️11RHM.DE 1/6 🌍?

🚀 1 strong: TSM · ⚡ 5 entry zone: LMT, NOC, PANW, RTX, SMH

Discovery — Insurance & Biotech ⚡1 2

1MU 4/6 ⚡2INCY 3/6

⚡ 1 entry zone: MU

Income / Defensive 🚀2⚡2 14

1ET 5/6 🚀2ISP.MI 3/4 🌍🚀3CB 4/6 ⚡4SW 4/6 ⚡5EWS 3/6 ⚙️6HIG 3/67NEE 3/68AM 2/69PGR 2/610PHM 2/611AWK 1/612BATS.L 1/4 🌍13SSE.L 1/4 🌍14VIE.PA 1/4 🌍

🚀 2 strong: ET, ISP.MI · ⚡ 2 entry zone: CB, SW

International 1

1EWJV 3/6 ⚙️

1 verified — regular tracking.

EM / Special 1

1BABA 3/6

1 verified — regular tracking.

Cash / Defensive ✅1 1

✅ IB01.L (50% NAV)

✅ 1 held: IB01.L (50% NAV)

verified standard strong signal ≥5/6 entry zone 4/6 NEW monthly promote_candidate proposed soft-drop italic = international UCITS (kept dla XTB EU access tagging)

Scoring framework v2 (od 2026-04-26): US corporate (finviz 6-crit) → INTL corporate (yfinance + ADR mapping, np. BATS.L→BTI) → ETP (macro-based per type: gold/silver/oil/copper/uranium/t-bills/country/sector/USD/PL-bonds). Italic nie znaczy już "poza scope" — wszystkie tickery dostają teraz scoring.

Pipeline lifecycle & discovery

🔄 Watchlist counter post-monthly

Pipeline lifecycle workflow. Każdy kandydat ma counter positive/negative: 2 positive z rzędu → promote (Wave candidate); 2 negative → propose drop. Scoring: positive = insider buy / earnings beat / super-investor add; negative = insider sell cluster / margin compression / super-investor exit.

Active verified62

positive_check (ET)1 / 0 score 5/6

positive_check (SFM)1 / 0 score 5/6

positive_check (TSM)1 / 0 score 5/6

positive_check (WM)1 / 0 score 5/6

positive_check (ACN)1 / 0 score 4/6

Promotions ↑0 wait next monthly

Auto-drops 🔴0 no hard triggers

Soft-drops proposed0 −1 negative

Stale flags0 skipped — nie 1.Q-day

Next stale review2026-07-01 Q3

⚠️ Proposed soft-drops size-cap

Kandydaci z YAML soft_drop_proposed: true. Powody: 0 super-investor support, overlap z lepszym tickerem, anti-concentration (sleeve full), thesis breach. Confirmation w kolejnym monthly (2026-06).

Ticker	Sleeve	Powód / score
Brak proposed soft-drops.

Counter −1 each. Weekly w maju może anulować (jeśli score lift do ≥4/6). Confirm w 2026-06 monthly. Cel: 60 → 30 verified w ~6-8 cycles.

🔍 Discovery scan 3 sources

Triangulacja 3 niezależnych źródeł aby znaleźć NOWE kandydaty: (A) finviz S&P 500 quality+value screen · (B) dataroma — co kupują super-investors (Buffett/Yacktman) w 13F filings · (C) insider buys (Form 4) ostatnie 30d. Spółka w 2+ z 3 sources = nowy verified candidate.

A: finviz QV screen38 candidates

B: dataroma per-ticker holders31 candidates checked · top 8 z 4+ owners

C: insider buys 30d200 transactions, 63 unique

2+ source overlapUBER (NEW), PGR (NEW), CPRT (NEW)

Single-source watchDECK, TEL, GD, LULU, TRV, CME, NVR

Source: reports/2026-04-28_monthly.md · refresh 2026-04-28. Top dataroma buys: CPRT (7) · UBER (7) · TEL (6) · CTSH (5) · PGR (5) · GD (4) · LULU (4) · TRV (4).

Data sources & ostatnie odświeżenia

🔌 Data sources status ✅ 13 OK · ⚠️ 0 warn · ❌ 0 fail

Layer 1 — Python helpery3/3 ✓

Layer 2 — Cloudflare Workers3/3 ✓

Layer 3 — Web fallbacks7/7 ✓

FRED 4Y macro pack24 series ✓

FF 5F factor returns12m → 02-2026 ✓

dataroma activity80 mgrs ✓

Last health check2026-05-01 11:38:35 UTC

Build dashboard2026-05-01 12:12 UTC

Pełny status: data-sources-status.md · Build: scripts/build_dashboard.py

📌 Action items monthly-2026-04-28

Wed 4/29 FOMC + dot plot — pre-FOMC defer all execute · due weekly-2026-05-03 — 20:00 CEST FOMC statement + 20:30 Powell presser. Pre-FOMC dziś (Tue) NIE execute żadnych deferred. Re-eval Wed post-close po dot plot revision (cuts H2?) + MSFT/GOOG/META AMC reactions. Najbardziej event-heavy day kwartału — gap risk wysoki. 3 nowe Wave 2 proposals (TSM/NOC/CB) execute conditional na FOMC outcome.

Thu 4/30 Core PCE March — Fed preferred inflation · due weekly-2026-05-03 — Consensus 2.8% YoY e. <2.7% = pivot trade revival (gold + 4GLD bid, USD−). >3.0% = stagflation alarm (yields up + gold pullback continues). Sets up trigger eval dla 4GLD.DE.

Gold pullback 📍 CLOSE — 4GLD upgrade trigger -4.5% away · due weekly-2026-05-03 — Gold $4,604 close 4/28 vs $4,394 trigger boundary (75th pct, top→upper-mid bracket transition). Pullback in progress. Jeśli touched + RSI <50 → upgrade 4GLD.DE LOW 🔵 → MEDIUM probe ($80). Continue WAIT do trigger touch.

Wave 2 BUY proposals v3 (TSM/CB/LMT) — counter-cycle triggers · due weekly-2026-05-03 — TSM ($80, MEDIUM) — pullback ≤$370 RSI <50 OR post-event selloff. CB ($80, MEDIUM-HIGH) — pullback ≤$315 RSI <45 OR Berkshire ADD 5/15 OR sector pullback. LMT ($80, MEDIUM, NEW replaces NOC) — pullback ≤$490 RSI <25 OR Q2 July beat-and-pullback. NOC superseded (insider -13.76% disqualifier #1 triggered, multi-flag thesis impairment).

Fri 5/1 NFP + ISM Mfg — labor + manufacturing pulse · due weekly-2026-05-03 — NFP April consensus ~165K e (below 100K = recession signal). ISM Mfg <50 = contraction signal. Industrial metals thesis read (VALE, COPX). Post-FOMC follow-through confirmation.

TTWO → CPRT swap deferred do monthly 2026-06-01 · due monthly-2026-06-01 — TTWO counter reset 4/28 (false alarm — Coleman + analyst consensus przeczy thesis break). Swap proposal pending 2-go negative weekly check TTWO + 2-go positive check CPRT (NEW 4/28). Anti-thrashing: max 2 swaps per monthly.

Framework calibration check — 4 deferred po 2 miesiącach · due monthly-2026-06-01 — ACN/IUES.L/4GLD/ISLN wciąż w queue. Sprawdzić czy framework za konserwatywny lub macro regime się zmienia. Decision: continue WAIT — gold pullback w +4.5% range trigger, IUES.L pullback wymaga -22% w WTI; framework working as designed.

Stale review preparation (2026-07-01 Q3 start) · due monthly-2026-07-01 — Pre-screen 60 verified candidates. Cohort 2026-04-26 added osiągnie ~2.5m w `verified` w lipcu — typically za wcześnie na demote (>6m wymóg), ale framework wymaga formal check.